Budanov Unveils Potential Factors To Reverse Situation At Ukrainian Front

The Defense Intelligence Chief also assessed the capabilities of the Russian Federation.

Head of the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kirylo Budanov said that in 2023 the Defense Forces are ready for decisive action in the war with Russia, but they largely depend on the amount of Western support.

He reminded those abroad who are “tired” of Ukraine that the Kremlin is fighting against NATO, and they will have to fight the occupiers if they approach their territories.

The Defense Intelligence Chief spoke about this in an interview with Le Monde. During it, the actions of the aggressor state last year, its current position, as well as factors that could turn the tide on the battlefield were discussed.

According to Budanov, the increased missile strikes from the Russian Federation were caused by the enemy’s desire to declare 2023 a “victorious” year, but there were no real victories. At the same time, these strikes showed that Russian missiles have a number of shortcomings, in particular they often miss.

“We immediately sent them our response. The target was their military installations. If we compare the situation with previous years, then since the end of the summer of 2023 we have seen an increase in the amount of ammunition produced by Russia. At the same time, we note a decrease in the quality of these shells,” explained the head of military intelligence.

He added that the intensive use of drones on both sides made it impossible to carry out both Russian and Ukrainian offensive operations. Another factor is the density of minefields, which has not been seen since World War II.

On the Ukrainian side, Budanov says, the solution to this problem would be to have more electronic countermeasures. And to clear mines to liberate territories, defenders need specialized equipment.

In 2023, he continued, the Defense Forces secured control of the northern Black Sea and gas platforms. Thanks to this, maritime export corridors, which are very important for the economy of our state, are functioning again, even despite the risks.

“We regularly attack the enemy’s navy and port facilities, so the Russians had to quickly move everything to the southeast. They are trying to create a naval base in Ochamchira on the occupied territory of Georgia,” Budanov noted.

Also in 2023, the first Ukrainian landings on the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea took place, although some had considered them impossible. According to the head of the Defense Intelligence, this gives hope — especially to Ukrainians on the peninsula, who have been living under Russian occupation for 10 years, and many of them have already begun to give up.

“Everyone thought that Moscow had a strong army but a weak economy. It turned out that it was the other way around. The army is weak. Russia's economy may be weak, but the country is far from starving. At this rate, it can hold out for quite a long time,” said the head of the Defense Intelligence.

He emphasized that the current Western sanctions against the Russian Federation are not enough. They were supposed to affect the main sectors of the economy of the aggressor country — energy, metallurgy and the financial system as a whole.

In 2024, Budanov added, Ukraine needs more shells and artillery systems. This refers not only to modern technologies, because the Armed Forces of Ukraine are interested in everything — including old systems that are no longer in use. What is important in this matter is the quantity of weapons and equipment provided.

“Those abroad who think that they are “tired” of Ukraine will have to deal with the Muscovites when they come to occupy their territories. The aggressor state Russia is waging war not only against Ukraine, but also against NATO, as their propaganda has claimed from the very beginning,” he recalled.