Russia’s Weakness Signes

Putin is tottering on his throne.

The current Russian army consists mainly of poorly trained people. They are involved in the fighting after the best soldiers were mostly killed or wounded in almost 2 years of fighting in Ukraine. Russia is losing its economic, political and military strength and sending signals of weakness. We just need to read it correctly. After all, all this, plus popular protests in Bashkortostan, became the beginning of Putin's loss of control over the regions of the Russian Federation.

This is very dangerous for Moscow. After all, when uprisings begin simultaneously in 7 or 10 national autonomies of the Russian Federation, the Kremlin will not be able to suppress them all. No forces of Rosgvardia, OMON or the police are simply not enough to establish "Putin's order" throughout Russia. It is necessary to synchronize actions between all forces that are interested in Putin's regime finally collapsing in this case.

Even invited experts on the TV shows by Skabeeva and Solovyov realized that Russia could not win the war. One of the main ideologists of the so-called Russian world, the director of the Institute of Diaspora and Integration, Konstantin Zatulin, has recently lacked his enthusiasm, and began to publicly admit that Moscow will not be able to seize the whole of Ukraine.

Putin has started tottering on his throne. However, the Moscow elite will be very careful in supporting anyone who opposes Putin. After all, he made very profitable deals with them from the very beginning of his presidency. They steadily follow all his instructions, and they receive huge financial rewards, estates and other preferences for doing it.

The Russian establishment owes its wealth and luxurious lifestyle to Putin. No one else on the political scene can guarantee them the preservation of all these investments: their local power and the support of the usurper. The emergence of a new leader of the Russian Federation will lead to a dangerous confrontation between different political and economic clans, which threatens the preservation of their way of life and the well-being of their families.

The beginning of a national crisis of trust in Russia can violate this business agreement concluded at one time between Russian oligarchs-criminals and Putin. If they start an open war with each other, then all the advantages of this kind of collective agreement between those who, together with Putin, privatized the Russian Federation for their benefit, will immediately disappear.

The corporate "establishment-bureaucratic octopus", which, together with the Kremlin, sold "stability" to the Russian people in exchange for obedience, can no longer fulfill its obligations to those whom it robbed, hiding behind the interests of the state and fake threats from Ukraine, the US and NATO.

Now there is a situation in which the oligarchic giant and all its propaganda TV team will no longer be able to cynically manipulate the spread of fear in society. After all, a gradual return to the standard of living of the early 90s of the last century will become for most Russians that social and economic watershed when they will have nothing to lose.

The residents of the Moscow region, who were brainwashed to respect the "tsar" Putin and his "boyars-oligarchs", seeing that the system of power built in Russia since 2000 suddenly began to collapse, is unlikely to think about the need to protect and preserve it. Rather, how to survive on your own during the onset of dark times of turmoil, which is already on the verge of an unsuccessful state, still called Russia.

The dictator wanted to enter world history at any cost, as a politician of high rank who managed to revive the USSR. Now he will enter it from the back, as a person who has ruined the Russian Federation thanks to his exorbitant geopolitical ambitions.

If Putin had not tried to "liberate" Ukraine from Ukrainians, then Russia would still be in the G8, could successfully trade oil and gas with Europe, establish lively trade with many other countries of the world, including Ukraine, the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom.

It is obvious that after Russia's loss in the war with Ukraine, the word "Putin" will enter the dictionaries of the peoples of the world, as a term defining a politician who rashly tried to take geopolitical revenge without having the appropriate resources, technologies and weapons. The one who totally failed.

It is not only about the collapse of Putin's leadership and his United Russia political party, it is about the collapse of the entire Russian system of power. Because the Putin regime, having seized all the tools that the Kremlin has at its disposal to support its own government, has closed everything to itself. It worked for the time being. However, the system will begin to slip immediately if several chains are hacked in a well-established mechanism for transferring operational power commands, and Moscow will not be able to fix anything quickly.

It is not difficult to see that Putin is bankrupting the Russian economy with this large-scale war in Ukraine. By sending more and more crowds of poorly trained recruits into the "meat grinder of war", in which they do not believe, the despot broke Russia's ties with the rest of the world. It can hardly be considered as the achievements of the Kremlin.

The deficit of goods and services in the Russian Federation is growing every day, and the financial security of any of the Russians who keep their savings in rubles decreases with the devaluation of the Russian "currency".

The situation develops so that even thousands of security officers won't help Putin in the future. He won't be able to protect himself not from Ukrainians, but from his own people. The short Prigozhin's 2023 uprising showed that distrust of the incumbent president's administration and the military is at its highest point, and that there are serious doubts about his ability to survive with his office.

The tyrant managed to demonstrate an alternative reality to the Russian people for more than two decades using the army of his propagandists. But it couldn't go on indefinitely. The ideologists of Putinism made a mistake when they created a system that, as it seemed to them, was laid for a millennium.

Putin made a mistake that turned out to be as fatal as Russia's joining the First World War. After Russian terrorist troops occupied part of Ukrainian Donbas and Crimea for almost 8 years, he believed that he was able to win a quick victory over the whole of Ukraine. The top Russian leadership was so carried away by the myth created by the Russians themselves about their invincibility that they believed in something that actually never existed.

The formula for victory turned out to be a test of the formula for failure, and Putin's vision of the situation in which they found themselves was wrong. After all, the defective management structure in the Russian Federation is stupid everywhere, and the army cannot be an exception here. The readiness of the military to execute any criminal orders of the political leadership led the highest Russian generals into a stalemate. They have already realized that they are unable to win the Russian-Ukrainian war, but have not yet fully matured to the point that it is necessary to overthrow Putin from the top of the power pyramid. After all, it's their strategic interests now.

As long as the Kremlin does not stop trying to sell the Russians complete nonsense that it is the entire West that has united against them, and they are "forces of Good", together with their closest allies from North Korea, Iran, Venezuela and China, are fighting for a "new just world order", they will be doomed to repeat their failures again and again. All attempts to revive the new Russian empire by occupying territories once occupied by the Soviet Union have failed from the very beginning.

Therefore, the Russian establishment needs to change its imperial thinking no less than to replace Putin. The war failures also shook the faith of the Russian elite in the power of Putin. After all, they create long-term political problems for a country that depends on the will of the supposedly "tough guy", who eventually turned out to be a geopolitical loser. Who has long ceased to personify strength and stability.

The collapse of the Soviet Union was the “Russian spring”. This lasted no longer than the presidency of Boris Yeltsin. Yeltsin transferred the presidency to Putin, who went crazy with his limitless power over the people of the Russian Federation, and presenting himself as the ruler of the world, decided to bend this world. The beginning of the implementation of these intentions was the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Putin's plan is absolutely clear: either control all of Ukraine or destroy it. He will not stop until he is liquidated, dies by himself, removed by force from the presidency, or achieves his goal. Dictators do not retreat just like that, and this is clear from history. Time will show if weakened Putin can survive in the Kremlin.

The balance of power in Putin's Kremlin coalition is changing much faster than during his time in power. The weaker the dictator's position becomes, the stronger the position of those closest to his imperial throne.

"Collective Putin" is now becoming a significant factor in Russian politics. This, of course, does not reduce the despotic component of the modern Kremlin authorities. The tyrant weakened and became dependent on representatives of the higher establishment and generals. Humiliated by the inability to seize all of Ukraine and the support of Ukrainians by the West, he has no choice but to make major decisions by consensus.

However, Putin has already made so many strategic and tactical mistakes that against his background, even the former poorly educated rulers of Russia look almost intellectual.

It is time for Ukraine and the West to take advantage of this usurper's weakness. After all, it becomes increasingly obvious that not everyone in his inner circle wants to bear his responsibility for all the crimes and horrors that he has committed in Ukraine.

One of the possible options is for the generals to repeat the experience of removing the Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu from power. The Russian military should take advantage of this opportunity as long as it exists...

Viktor Kaspruk, blog