Roman Svitan: Shahed Flew To Mazyr Refinery For Specific Reason
11- 9.10.2024, 13:30
- 18,068
Did the Russians want to create a "casus belli"?
In the early morning of October 4, a Russian Shahed kamikaze drone flew into Belarus and exploded near the Mazyr Oil Refinery (MOR).
The National Security and Defence Council (NSDC) of Ukraine believes that this was a deliberate attack.
The website Charter97.org asked a well-known military expert, Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the reserve, Roman Svitan, to comment on the Shahed explosion near the Mazyr Refinery:
— The fact is that Russians, calculating routes through Ukraine, can bring Shaheds to Romania, Moldova, Belarus. They can reach Poland and the Baltic countries, which has already happened.
The Russians use it. They have the technical ability to route the flight of Shahed with access to neighboring countries.
Another question is with what task they do it. It’s hard to answer. They can be different, starting from the creation of the "casus belli", as in this case. After all, if Shahed came to the Mazyr Refinery from Ukraine, the Belarusian regime could perceive it as an attack on infrastructure. It is clear that the question of premeditation and so on would have been raised, but nevertheless.
Therefore, it is difficult to predict what caused the entry and detonation. It could destroy himself, he could perform a combat mission: enter and hit the target to which he was sent.
He could have been shot down by the Belarusian air defence. Shahed is an easy target for anti-aircraft systems. There are many unknowns initially, but one of the most serious consequences is the creation of a "casus belli" by the Russians. It could push Lukashenka to some retaliatory actions.
I emphasize that Ukraine does not have Shaheds. We don't produce them. If Shahed enters the territory of Belarus, it is Chinese, Russian, Iranian Shahed.
The response of the military leadership of Belarus is on their conscience.
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