Lukashenka Dug A Hole Too Deep

The number of blunders is off the charts.

Lukashenka likes to present himself as a wise prophet in the spirit of “I told you so”. But life has refuted a huge number of his predictions and statements.

Only now few people remember what exactly Lukashenka said a year, two or three ago. There are exceptions like the meme “And I'll show you where the attack on Belarus was being prepared from…”, but most of the statements have long been forgotten.

“Solidarity” analyzed a huge layer of Lukashenka's statements on the topic of the war with Ukraine. The picture turned out to be very bleak for the ruler of Belarus: the number of blunders is off the charts.

Before the war: “If there were plans to attack, then the Belarusian military, including me, would have known about it”

“I know for sure: everyone in Russia is fed up with the conflict in Ukraine,” Lukashenka claimed in August 2015 in an interview with non-state media (yes, the same ones that are now recognized as “extremist groups” — TUT.BY, Radio Svaboda, Euroradio).

At the same time, he said: “I absolutely do not support the presence of any troops in Ukraine. Not only Russian, but also American.”

Three months before the start of the war, Lukashenka insisted that Western countries “came up with the thesis that Russia is going to attack Ukraine”.

“I have no such information about Russia's planned attack on Ukraine. But if there were such plans, then the Belarusian military, including me, would have known about it. We would have been informed,” the politician believed.

And in early February 2022, in an interview with propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, the governor spoke out quite categorically:

“Ukraine will never fight with us: this war will last three or four days at most. There will be no one to fight against us. Those who are shown there with these wooden machine guns, how they train…”

Stage I: Lukashenka takes the side of the aggressor and calls on Zelensky to surrender

A month later, Lukashenka stated the exact opposite:

“If a preemptive strike had not been launched on the positions [of the Ukrainian army] six hours before the operation — four positions, I’ll show you a map now, I have brought it — they would have attacked our troops, Belarus and Russia, who were at the exercises. Therefore, we did not launch this war, our conscience is clear. It’s good that we started. Biological weapons, the largest nuclear power plants — and they were ready to blow all of this up.”

However, in the second year of the war, Lukashenka changed his testimony and said that he learned about the start of the war... after Putin's speech on television: “We never had a conversation, right before the military actions (that the war would begin — S.)”.

In fact, Lukashenka provided the military aggressor with territory and infrastructure to attack a neighboring country. Because of his miscalculations, Belarus and its economy ended up under large-scale Western sanctions.

But let's go back to February 24, 2022. Then Lukashenka talked about the imminent victory of Russian troops and put pressure on the President of Ukraine, with whom he maintained telephone contact, persuading him to give the order to the Armed Forces of Ukraine to lay down their arms.

“If he (Zelensky — S.) understands that he will lose it (the war — S.) to the second-best army in the world (and maybe the best — who knows?), then it is better to stop now. Even halfway. And on this halfway you will get more than in the end by losing this war. Such are the laws of the genre,” Lukashenka said on February 24.

At the same time, he spoke about the need to prepare draft peace agreements:

“Yes, they will be stricter in relation to Ukraine. But what about today, if you are defeated? Of course, the winner will dictate something to you.”

On February 27, 2022, during the constitutional “referendum” in Belarus, Lukashenka once again demonstrated his faith in the power of Russia, outlining the fate of Ukraine as absolutely tragic:

“Just recently, the “little Napoleon” (excuse me for talking about him like that) addressed the Belarusian people about the referendum. As if there is nothing else to do in Ukraine, but to broadcast to the Belarusian people from a bunker and advise them what to do. I just want to say that they are suggesting that we repeat the fate of Ukraine.”

Lukashenka again called on Zelensky to surrender:

“If this continues, berries will grow. And he won’t hide in any bunker — neither American nor any other.”

Stage II: “This operation has dragged on”

With the failure of the Russian blitzkrieg, Lukashenka took a much more moderate position: he no longer called for Kyiv to capitulate, but continued to repeat the theses of Russian propaganda: allegedly Zelensky is a puppet of the insidious West, which is waging war “to the last Ukrainian”.

In May 2022, there was a rare case when Lukashenka admitted his short-sightedness — in an interview with the Associated Press: “I didn’t think that this operation would drag on like this. But I’m not so immersed in this problem that I can say whether the Russians are going according to plan, as they say, or as I feel. I emphasize once again, I feel that this operation has dragged on.”

But in the same conversation, Lukashenka began to dispel the myth of the upcoming Polish invasion of Ukraine:

“You know, it seems to me that it is such a crazy idea that if, for example, Poland and other countries continue to behave like this, then we, Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, will fight against them together. Because already in Poland, certain figures and politicians are sharpening their swords and sabres and see Western Ukraine as part of Poland. That is, they already have the dismemberment of Ukraine in their heads... They, the Ukrainians, themselves will not be able to resist the so-called current allies. Therefore, I do not rule out that we, three Slavic peoples, including Ukrainians, will have to defend the integrity of Ukraine.”

More than two and a half years have passed since then. Of course, no Poles have invaded Ukraine. But Russia has made an absolutely illegal decision to annex four regions of Ukraine.

Nevertheless, Lukashenka has repeatedly promoted this fake about Poland's intentions: “The Ukrainians will also ask us and the Russians to help them preserve their integrity. So that they don't get snatched away.”

On September 1, 2022, Lukashenka decided to show off his awareness of the prospects of war to students and schoolchildren during the “Open Lesson”: “The outcome will be in the near future... Everything in Ukraine no longer depends on the president. It depends on the military. They are dying there. They see that it is hopeless. Western Ukraine — the Poles are already rubbing their hands. The Poles were given the right to govern Ukraine there. Are you completely crazy? They are dividing Ukraine.”

The promised outcome has not yet come. And hopes that the Ukrainian military would take power into their own hands in order to “negotiate” with the Kremlin have also not come true.

As of November 2022, the northern part of Ukraine has long been liberated from Russian troops, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out a successful “Kharkiv counteroffensive” and returned Kherson. But Lukashenka was still working on the Russian propaganda agenda:

“It's hard, difficult, but we have to stop, we have to stop this, because what will happen next is the complete destruction of Ukraine.”

Stage III. Lukashenka sometimes imitates “neutrality”: “We have reached an agreement with the Ukrainians through certain channels”

In 2023, the rhetoric of the Belarusian ruler regarding the war in Ukraine underwent another change. The last time it failed was in March, when a Russian A-50 reconnaissance aircraft was blown up at the Machulishchy airfield — the SSU later confirmed its involvement in the sabotage.

“I once thought that Ukraine needed peace, that Zelensky was worried about his people. President Zelensky is just a bastard. Just a bastard! Such operations are not carried out without the consent of the country's leader and Commander-in-Chief,” Lukashenka was indignant.

But just a few months later, the politician gave a completely different characterization of the Ukrainian president:

“So it's not just Zelensky who is to blame. Yes, he is to blame for not coping with this situation. And who had it easier? Was it easier for Putin when he became president? Or was it easier for the Belarusians?”

Lukashenka has stopped openly taking the Kremlin's side and has significantly softened his rhetoric towards the Ukrainian authorities. In his statements, Zelensky has transformed from a “little Napoleon” or “nit” into “Vladimir Alexandrovich”, a politician who turned out to be a victim of circumstances.

In June 2023, Lukashenka promised in an interview with the Rossiya TV channel: “I am not a prophet, but we will end this war in Ukraine. There are already big prerequisites for this.”

A lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then, but the fighting continues. Another forecast by the ruler of Belarus has been a miss.

In the second half of 2024, Lukashenka distanced himself from the Kremlin in his statements even more. When he announced the withdrawal of troops from the border with Ukraine in the summer, followed by the breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Kursk region, Russian media even began to publish articles with headlines like “Between Moscow and Kyiv: Whose Side Is Lukashenka on?”.

In September 2024, the ruler once again emphasized his “neutral” position. Drones began flying into Belarus en masse as a result of the use of electronic warfare, but instead of portraying Ukraine as an enemy, Lukashenka said:

“We agreed with the Ukrainians through channels that we will not highlight in the media the facts of drones flying into our territory — either Russian or Ukrainian.”

A month later, he continued the topic:

“There have been several such cases (drones flying in — S.) both from Russia and from Ukraine. We shoot down many. We do not care whether they are Russian or Ukrainian.”

However, Lukashenka's dependence on the Kremlin is too strong. And “neutral” statements alternate with statements like “I absolutely support the position of the current Russian leadership.”

Stage IV. What will it be like?

To summarize: in almost three years of war in Ukraine, Lukashenka has changed his rhetoric several times. Before the attack, he insisted that the West was denigrating Putin, and after the war began, he openly sided with the Kremlin, calling on his neighbors to surrender and traditionally resorting to insults.

But when the Russian blitzkrieg failed and the war dragged on, Lukashenka began to distance himself more and more from Russia. At the same time, he continues to threaten the West with nuclear weapons and propose joint projects such as building a high-speed highway from Moscow to Berlin via Belarus.

What remains unchanged in Lukashenka's words and actions is the desire to get rid of the status of a co-aggressor and get a seat at the table of future peace negotiations. The politician has been pursuing these two goals, which would help him get out of this and regain a certain autonomy in relations with the West and Russia, almost from the very beginning of the war.

On February 24, 2022, he was outraged: “I read: “At about 5 am, the state border of Ukraine in the section between Russia and Belarus was attacked by Russian troops, which are supported by Belarus.” Those bastards! Our troops are not taking part in this operation.”

Back in April 2022, Lukashenka said that there could be no Russian-Ukrainian negotiations without the participation of Belarus. In November 2024, he said that these negotiations should take place in Belarus (“Because this is happening at our fence, at our border. And our interests must be respected”).

But by supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenka dug himself too deep a hole to completely mitigate the consequences in the future.

However, he will, of course, still try to present himself as the main “peacekeeper” and “savior” of Ukraine. And we will hear more than once “I told you so…”

And although, as shown above, a whole series of Lukashenka’s predictions failed, we will cite one more:

“Time will pass, and the Donbas will be Ukrainian, just as even today’s nationally oriented Ukrainian authorities want.”

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