Pastukhov: Putin Achieved None Of His War Goals

Two years of war is wasted for the Kremlin.

It is the third year since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the full-scale war. The victorious slogan "Kyiv in three days" has long been forgotten — on the other hand, the temporarily occupied territories, cynically called "new regions", are included in Russia, and the paths to a non-military resolution of the situation seem to be completely cut off.

Russian political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov analyzes the results with which Russia has passed these two years and what it has (not) achieved.

— First of all, the interim result of two years of the war is for Ukraine, — said the doctor of political sciences on the Khodorkovsky LIVE channel. — Despite the dire situation, despite the critical moments that we are witnessing, despite the fact that the Russian army is currently pressing, and Ukraine has lost part of its territory, 30% and much more — none of the Kremlin's goals for which it started this war have been achieved.

This is a key result: two years of war is wasted. The political regime in Kyiv resisted and became even more "anti-Russian", Ukraine became "anti-Russia" more than ever, in a cube, I do not know to what extent.

To break through the international blockade that they wanted to break through in this way, to put the West in front of the fact with their blitzkrieg and to negotiate on their own terms — none of this succeeded. Isolation and confrontation only intensified, the sanctions regimes they wanted to get rid of increased. At a local level, the project of the buffer state "Malorossiya", from Transnistria to Mariupol, failed.

There are a million people who are rotting at the front. There is a paramilitary economy and structural distortions in it, reminiscent of what was in the late Soviet Union. There is a deaf grumbling in society.

The second obvious outcome is fatigue. For such wars, two years is a cutoff, after which fatigue ensues both in both belligerents and in the surrounding world, which, voluntarily or involuntarily, is drawn into this war. At the turning point, this fatigue of the society becomes a political factor that will increasingly influence decision-making.

The third point is more specific — the topic of the ceasefire is floating around. For both sides, it becomes clear: this is either a war for years, or the situation needs to be frozen somehow.

But if this process is started now, it will have extremely negative political consequences for the current leadership of Ukraine, so it will try to either delay or do everything to prevent this. Moreover, there is a significant risk that if Ukraine overestimates its forces, and Russia can take advantage of the munition famine and break through the front somewhere, Ukraine will have to put an end to it in less favourable conditions.

Unfortunately, Russia's advantage in armaments, compensated in 2022-2023 with the help of the West, is now again significant. The war acquires an existential character again.

According to Vladimir Pastukhov, today the war is approximately at the equator, and then "the pendulum must swing in some direction."

Speaking about the prospects of the Russian regime and the state of society, the political scientist cautiously notes that the future belongs to the "modernization element":

— Fortunately, historically, this regime is doomed. It has no future. Most likely, it is doomed to collapse in the next generation, I think 10 years is the limit. The question is that these 10 years need to be lived, and not everyone will survive.

But, on the other hand, time passes quickly, and those who think that it will last forever and who would not like to see anything else will still see it. And it is better to prepare for this, otherwise, it will be very difficult to choose explanatory words. Time does not work in their favour.