Political Scientist: There's One Interesting Point In Russia's Future

The expert speaks about Russia's possible future in six years.

The Washington-based analytical center Atlantic Council has voiced five scenarios for what Russia could become in just six years – in 2030.

Charter97.org asked Oleksandr Musienko, a political expert and head of the Ukrainian Center for Military and Legal Studies, to share his forecast for the future of Russia:

— I would name two or three scenarios applicable until 2030. The first is that Russia remains within the territorial limits in which it exists, but it is weakening economically, politically and in fact is becoming increasingly dependent on China. Accordingly, it depends on China in terms of resources and economically, thus turning into a nuclear power but following Beijing's decisions. Russia becomes dependent on China and becomes such a territory of struggle for influence between the West and China.

The second scenario is that Russia finally falls into a situation where only the power of fascists and similar regimes is possible in the country. There is also stagnation, since this will not lead to an increase in investment or anything else, with the exception of China.

And the third option: more and more subjects of the Russian Federation will begin to declare their right to autonomy and independent decision-making by 2030. There were protests in Bashkortostan recently. This will lead to the fact that in fact Russia will disintegrate into various new state formations.

— If we are talking about the first scenario when Russia maintains its territorial integrity: What will happen in this case to those regions of Ukraine that the Kremlin "annexed" to the Russian Federation?

— Russia will lose them by 2030, it will be the territory of Ukraine, as it should be. In the first scenario, there is still an interesting point — in fact, we will see the expansion of China to certain regions of Russia. This will be a kind of formation of Chinese colonies in certain regions in Russia's Far East. It will also be an interesting point that in fact Russia seems to maintain territorial integrity, but nevertheless some areas, regions or even subjects of the federation will be more like Chinese colonies.

— Recently, there has been a lot of news about the economic problems of the Russian Federation: Ukraine's strikes on oil refining, issues with gas projects, increasing success of the sanctions. In your opinion, will the scenario of the economic collapse of the Russian Federation follow the example of the USSR?

— Of course, it is possible. This will take some time. We see that more and more sectors of the Russian economy are beginning to either suffer losses or stagnate altogether. Obviously, the longer the sanctions regime continues, which the West does not plan to lift at least until the invasion of Ukraine stops, the greater Russia's economic difficulties will be.

The Russian Federation is trying to compensate for this at the expense of other markets. But now the difference between Russia and the Soviet Union is that China was not so developed then, there was no alternative for the USSR in foreign markets. It is clear that they traded with Africa and so on, but this is not the same level at all. And now they are trying to compensate for this at the expense of China, which continues to help keep afloat economically, the countries of Southeast Asia, some African countries, South America and Brazil.

Russia is trying to somehow hold on due to this, but it is still a matter of time, because they will not be able to fully replace Western markets and find a worthy alternative. And China will act quite cautiously, so as not to run into the harsh sanctions of the West. China has a trade turnover of about $700-800 billion with Europe and slightly less with America, and with Russia — about $90 billion.

Beijing's preferences are clear, so Russia, of course, will be able to stay afloat for some time, there is no extreme collapse yet. However, the situation will worsen. That's true, this collapse is quite possible in the future.

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