Olga Lautman: Russia Informs The World About Its Plans Through Lukashenka

The West should be ready.

Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) Olga Lautman gave an interview to Charter97.org and commented on Lukashenka's militaristic statements.

– Lukashenka propaganda has released a very weird video: Lukashenka, dressed like a Dictator movie personage, while holding his dog, matter-of-factly discusses together with his general future invasion into Poland and Lithuania. What do you make of it?

– Besides laughing – it did look like a villain movie, Lukashenka with his little fluffy dog. I think that he is again running his mouth. Is he actually going to launch an invasion into Poland or Lithuania? I don't think so. As with everything else, he likes to run his mouth, to show his strength, but he still has the same problem, I think, that he had a few years ago: he is worried that if he sends the Belarusian army into another country, they might not take the orders. This is what kept him from sending troops to Ukraine despite Putin's pressure.

So, do we have to worry? Absolutely. The Suwalki corridor definitely is something that Russia has been eyeing and we really need to make sure that everything is secure. Do I think he is going to invade Poland or Lithuania this week, next week, next month? No, I don't think so. And I don't think Russia is prepared at this moment to have a direct confrontation with NATO.

— There was an exchange in the video when Lukashenka asked his general, "Are you sure that you, your forces will hold this territory?", referring to the Suwalki gap? And in response, the general goes into a long ramble, mentioning instructions, planning, military readiness, roads, terrain, recognizance, and many other things while never answering affirmatively.

– I have watched these types of discussions on Russian State TV: how they are going to take the Baltics in 48-72 hours. They even had maps showing which points they were going to come in. I think it is propaganda. Lukashenko would be crazy right now to attempt to attack Poland, the NATO country. Is he ready to face off with 32 NATO countries? No.

– In response to Lukashenka's statement that he's preparing for the war, the Polish Foreign Minister said, "Let him try. Let's see who wins."

– Absolutely. They will not get far: the minute they (Russia and Belarus) directly attack Poland or any NATO country, they have to deal with the full force of NATO, including the US military. At this moment, I do not think that they are prepared. Does Lukashenka get attention when saying crazy things? Yes, but with actual actions, I don't see him doing it. Right now the priority is Ukraine, and if Lukashenko was to send the Belarusian military anywhere it would be to Ukraine, which is a non-NATO country – he still hasn't done that.

But the bottom line from all of this is Russia is telling the world their intentions. Maybe they are not going to do it right this minute. Maybe a lot of it is for propaganda, but eventually they will cross the line and Europe needs to be prepared for that moment because Russia is not seeking peace - they are seeking a war. They have carried out a hybrid war against Europe and the United States over the past decade. Now they want a confrontational one-on-one war when they are ready for it. So, whatever Lukashenko says or what any of the Kremlin figures say, NATO should be prepared, because this is where Russia wants to go. These are not peaceful neighbors and they will continue causing chaos and death and destruction and be a danger to Europe.

– "If someone says that he's going to kill you, believe him."

– Absolutely. When you have politicians in Duma and propagandists, Medvedev – they all saying that they want to eliminate Ukrainians, to kill them, they don't want Ukrainians to exist, when they calling Ukrainians a “biological matter that needs to be erased” - with this they are spelling out their intentions for genocide. By their actions in occupied territories they are committing genocide. Europe and the United States are still scratching their heads, but we have to see that this is genocide. So, believe them.

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