Volodymyr Fesenko: Putin Is Paranoid

Shoigu is still under attack.

Putin made personnel changes in Russia's top leadership: Sergei Shoigu replaced Nikolai Patrushev as head of the Russian Security Council, and Patrushev became Putin's assistant.

Another assistant to Putin was his former bodyguard, the governor of the Tula region, Alexey Dyumin. What is behind these changes?

The Charter97.org website spoke about this with the famous Ukrainian political scientist, head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research Volodymyr Fesenko:

— As for Shoigu, formally this can even be considered a slight increase. But the post of Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation became significant only in the last 16 years under Patrushev, when he headed it and reformatted it for himself. In this post, he maintained control over the FSB and other security agencies. Let me emphasize that before Patrushev, the Security Council secretaries did not enjoy such influence.

Nevertheless, for Shoigu this is, of course, a demotion. He loses real power and control over huge financial flows. The Russian Ministry of Defense had a trillion-dollar budget (in Russian rubles). Apparently, he and his inner circle abused these financial flows, which displeased Putin. In general, one of the main reasons for Shoigu’s dismissal is active theft.

Now Shoigu is being torn from his home, where he had great power. After the elimination of Prigozhin, he became very strong, as did Patrushev.

As a result, it seems like this is a castling: both Shoigu and Patrushev remain on Putin’s team, but they were torn out from their homes, structures that they reshaped for themselves, using for personal influence.

After the removal of Prigozhin, Patrushev and Shoigu were the most influential people in the Russian Federation after Putin. I think that this greatly bothered the master of the Kremlin.

Putin doesn’t want to share his power with anyone, he doesn’t trust anyone. Therefore, one of the goals of this reshuffle is to reduce the real power of these two. Yes, they remain on the team, but they will no longer have such a strong influence as they had.

With these personnel decisions, Putin is forming a new system of checks and balances. It is not democratic, it is authoritarian: it pits some against others. Everyone must control each other.

— Economist Belousov became the head of the Ministry of Defense, and important changes took place in the security bloc. How will this affect the war in Ukraine?

— Look at the current situation in the Russian government. There will, in fact, be three centers of influence. Mishustin, who will lead the civilian sector and ensure the stability of the economy, his first deputy is Manturov, who will lead the military-industrial complex. The third is Belousov, Minister of Defense.

These three centers of influence will also control each other. But Denis Manturov and Belousov are also about ensuring the Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine. Both will have to ensure a resource war against Ukraine and maintain the Russian Federation’s advantage in resources.

A number of experts believe that the Russian military-industrial complex is at its limit. It will be difficult to expand further due to a lack of personnel and other resources. Therefore, Putin appoints people who will focus specifically on finding and providing resources for the current war.

I call both Manturov and Belousov “engineers of war.” They play such a role for him, but Putin will control them from the outside. The same Shoigu will be controlled from the Security Council.

At the same time, Shoigu himself remains under attack. Please note that arrests at the Ministry of Defense continue. Maybe Putin will personally pardon him and not send him to prison, but various Russian sources say that risks for Shoigu remain.

I do not rule out that Patrushev and another close associate of Putin, Alexey Dyumin, will be a shadow military cabinet next to the owner of the Kremlin. Through them he will control both the Ministry of Defense and Shoigu.

I see more domestic political significance in these personnel decisions. Putin doesn’t trust anyone, he’s paranoid, so he’s now trying to reshuffle his personnel deck.

Rearrange the overly strengthened characters there to other places, while they will control each other, which suits Putin. This once again suggests that there will be no successors. Putin will remain an autocrat, controlling the system of power in Russia through this system of checks and balances.

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