'Any Crow Seems To Lukashenka Enemy Drone'

The main pillar of the regime is getting weaker.

Lukashenka has become a prisoner of his own conspiracy, writes political scientist Aliaksandr Klaskouski for Pozirk:

"Lukashenka is already suspicious and distrustful by nature. And the law enforcement agencies are feeding him with scare stories. Any crow will seem to be an enemy drone whether you like it or not.

However, we do not know what "little brother" was secretly talking about with Vladimir Putin and his generals in the Kremlin on the night of May 9. Perhaps they are planning to involve the ally much more tightly in their aggressive plans. If Minsk crosses the red lines, Kyiv may feel it has the right to retaliate, including with the hands of the Kalinouski regiment fighters.

Furthermore, on relations with the NATO members. Now their fears about an attack of Putin-Lukashenka's troops, say, on the notorious Suvalki Gap seem exaggerated. But appetite comes at mealtime. Nobody knows what the Kremlin's ambitions will be in a few years' time if it achieves a favourable ceasefire in Ukraine and builds up its military power.

Lukashenka is not eager to go to war with the North Atlantic Alliance, but Moscow may not even ask him about it. Faced with aggression, the NATO states can change their view on the paramilitary formations of Lukashenka's opponents.

Finally, the question of the resource of stability of the Moscow and Minsk regimes remains open. As long as the Kremlin is strong, the ruler of Belarus can't be pushed out. But the confrontation with a significant part of the developed world is gradually undermining the potential of the Russian Federation, in other words, Lukashenka's main support.

In its time, the USSR could not withstand the rivalry with the "world of capitalism", first of all, with the USA. The weight of the Russian Federation in the world economy is much lower than it was in the USSR, and sanctions severely undercut the technological capabilities of both Russia and Belarus.

If Moscow weakens sharply, the crisis of Lukashenka's regime is inevitable. And given the acute crisis, turbulence in society, split of the elites, and confusion of the security forces, decisive actions of even a few hundred trained people from the other camp can play a decisive role in the country's fate.