Massacre In Dagestan: On What Is Known So Far

Analysts have revealed who may be behind the attack.

More than 15 Russian policemen and several civilians were killed in a militant attack in Dagestan on June 23. Six attackers were killed.

In the evening of June 23, militants attacked two Orthodox churches, a synagogue and a traffic police post near another synagogue in Derbent and Makhachkala. In addition, the village of Sergokala, the administrative centre of Sergokala district, was attacked.

Children Of Local Elite And MMA Fighter Among The Attackers

According to the authorities, two sons and a nephew of Magomed Omarov, the head of Sergokala district and head of the local United Russia cell, are among the attackers. The official has been detained.

One of the militants liquidated by Russian security forces in Dagestan may be MMA fighter Gadzhimurad Kagirov.

As Telegram channel Mash wrote, Kagirov could be one of the militants liquidated in Derbent. It is noted that the athlete is a trainee of Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov's school and a fighter of his son Khabib's club of Eagles MMA.

Kagirov is also a master of sports in freestyle wrestling.

Who Could Attack Dagestan?

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the attack on Dagestan was probably carried out by the North Caucasus branch of the Islamic State (IS) called Vilayat Kavkaz.

ISW experts stress that on June 23, after the attack began, the Russian branch of Al-Azaim Media, a resource of Vilayat Khorasan (one of the branches of the Islamic State), published a statement praising "their brothers from the Caucasus" for demonstrating what they are capable of.

However, Al-Azaim did not take responsibility for the attack itself, and the mention of the Caucasus strongly suggests that it was Vilayat Caucasus that was responsible for the attack, ISW believes. We remind you that the Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which includes Russia, specifically warned that the Vilayat Kavkaz organisation became more active after the attack by Vilayat Khorasan on Crocus City Hall on March 22, and has intensified its recruitment in the North Caucasus since April 2024.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War also emphasise that Russian authorities have attempted to conduct a "sluggish" counterterrorism operation in the North Caucasus since March 2024 to combat the growing influence of Islamic State and Vilayat Kavkaz structures. However, the Russian government's efforts and response after the Crocus City Hall attack instead focused on baselessly blaming Ukraine and NATO for the attack.

Russia Losing Control of the Caucasus

Russian expert Alexander Baunov believes that the Russian regime is losing control in a variety of places - unexpected to itself:

- While the war seems to have strengthened and consolidated the regime. The most dangerous of these episodes are the Prigozhin mutiny, the missed terrorist attack in Moscow and the airport massacre in Makhachkala. Then there is Dagestan again.

A big terrorist attack in Moscow, the seizure of a regional airport, and classic, 90s and early 2000s-style attacks on security forces, institutions and symbolically important sites in the Caucasus will not bring down the regime. However, it is impossible not to notice a bad cyclical pattern, a return to something that seemed to have been abandoned long ago.

The expert sees the main reason for these events:

- Although military practices give the impression of a strengthened state structure and consolidation of signalling and execution chains, in reality the opposite may be happening. The decades-old peacetime system of governance has been destroyed and radically distorted in many places. However, having collapsed the peaceful managerial reality in some areas, it is difficult to hold it in other areas; it will crumble there as well. Hence the concentration of unprecedented or forgotten events. Strength to those who have innocently suffered from this and are suffering right now.