'Ukraine Will Respond With Strike On Lukashenka's Palace'

It is only 270 kilometers from the border.

Former SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) officer Ivan Stupak, in an interview with Glavred, expressed the opinion that Lukashenka's attack on Ukraine would lead to the collapse of his regime:

— We always take into account the scenario of possible participation of the Belarusian army in the war of Russia against Ukraine. But, in my opinion, the probability is slightly above zero.

Firstly, the army of Belarus is not ready for war – it has no combat experience.

Secondly, it is technically exhausted. The Russian Federation has taken a great number of weapons, gear and ammunition from Belarus to fight with Ukraine.

Thirdly, Lukashenka understands that if he enters the war, the question will arise: why, for what purpose? To invade Poland and break into the Suwalki corridor? Indeed, Minsk has already made such statements. In particular, the Chief of the General Staff of the Republic of Belarus Muraveika, who was appointed to this post only a few months ago, made such loud statements in October last year. However, Muraveika is a very big supporter of the so-called Russian World. Muraveika and State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Volfavich are two major drivers of Russian interests among the Belarusian security forces. It is possible that through Muraveika, Russians throw the necessary theses into the public space.

However, Lukashenka does not benefit from such a scenario. The Belarusian dictator sees the situation like this: selling fear and shaking the Palanez system ("mayonnaise", as they are called by our military) is cool. But what's next? What is the purpose of all such actions? If there is a war, it will be necessary to mobilize people and give weapons to them. But Lukashenka is well aware that in this case, the weapon will fall into the hands of people who in 2020 almost threw him off the throne.

— Does mobilization in Belarus threaten the collapse of the Lukashenka regime?

– Yes. Sure. And Lukashenka understands this perfectly well.

In addition, Lukashenka is aware that part of the territory of the Republic of Belarus is vulnerable to attacks from Ukraine. For example, the Mazyr Oil Refinery is located 40 kilometers from the line of the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. The Palace of Independence of Belarus is 270 km from the territory of Ukraine. The entire territory of Belarus – from south to north – is 500 kilometers. That's quite small. In this situation, Ukraine could work with drones that could safely fly back and forth. Without refueling.

In my opinion, if there is a fight for the Suwalki corridor, Ukraine should get involved in it. In this case, we will defend our main allies – Poland and the Baltic States. It will be impossible to hesitate.

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