Military Expert: There Are Four Reasons Why 'Shaheds' Flying Across Belarus
2- 17.07.2024, 12:40
- 8,754
One of them is a provocation of the Russian Federation.
Since July 11, during the Russian attacks by the "Shaheds", these drones have repeatedly flown into the territory of Belarus from Ukraine. As of last night, there were four such cases, and this happened twice yesterday.
Some of the kamikaze drones, flying across Belarus (in some places it could take hours, and the trajectory hundreds of kilometers), returned again to Ukrainian airspace, and some disappeared in Belarus. Moreover, during these flights, in three out of four cases, Belarusian aviation was involved.
The Belaruski Hayun monitoring channel admits that the military of the Republic of Belarus could have known about the maneuvers of the Russians and raised helicopters or fighters in order to destroy it "in case of inappropriate operation of the drone" in time.
In fact, RBC-Ukraine asked military expert Pavlo Narozhny what could be hidden under such "wanderings" of kamikaze drones in Belarus. He notes that the versions regarding possible causes are all on the verge of a "conspiracy theory". However, he names several probable scenarios according to which the enemy can act.
"First, it may be the collection of some data. After all, in general, the "Shaheds" are large enough and can carry a fairly large load — up to 50 kg.
It can be a radar and, theoretically, anything else. That is, the drone can collect some data, fly to Belarus and take data from it and the like," Narozhny suggests.
According to him, the second possible option could be the search, the provocation of the work of the Ukrainian air defence so that it would shoot down the drone.
"Or they, for example, can observe whether our radar will work and can strike at this radar. Because the Russians have an anti-radar missile Kh-31P."
The third option may be the work of Ukrainian EW, which either simply jams the GPS signal to the drone or transmits some fake signals and therefore it flies in some incomprehensible direction," Narozhny explains.
The fourth option, in his opinion, may be an attempt by the Russian Federation to provoke Belarus.
"Let's imagine that the "Shahed" arrives at the Mazyr refinery or lands on its territory and there is a fire. After that, Russia or Belarus accuse us, saying that it was allegedly a Ukrainian drone strike. And for Belarus, this is a kind of casus belli (reason for war)," the expert notes and adds that none of the above versions has any evidence that would appear in the public field, and therefore can only be assumed.
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