West Ignoring Lukashenka

Nobody is reacting to the dictator's winks.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka is lamenting that he offers Poland and Lithuania to settle relations, but can't find reciprocity. Why it's ‘mine doesn't understand yours’ not only in specific issues, but in general. The ruler of Belarus remembers how, despite all his escapades, the West eventually changed anger into acceptance, followed by warming of relations. This has happened repeatedly, and, to all appearances, Lukashenka is surprised that this time at least the European Union has not yet moved even to the bargaining stage.

‘Salidarnasts’ knows that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs tried to offer Europe a number of initiatives aimed at improving relations back in the time of Siarhei Aleinik. But it did not receive any response at all.

How the West Sees the Situation

There are two main reasons why nobody reacted to the ‘wink’ of the Belarusian diplomats.

The first: Aliaksandr Lukashenka became a super toxic person back in 2020 following his brutal repression of those who protested against the falsification of the presidential election results. After the then head of the International Ice Hockey Federation Rene Fasel, who came to Minsk in January 2021, was subjected to devastating criticism in the press, few people had any desire to talk to the official Minsk.

However, it was only the easy bit. The worst came later: in the form of landing a Ryanair plane in order to capture Raman Pratasevich and Sofia Sapega, organising a migration crisis on the eastern borders of the European Union and helping Russia in the war against Ukraine.

It is worth adding that the repression, the crisis on the border, and complicity in aggression continue. In these conditions, initiatives such as visa-free travel for citizens of 35 EU countries, which could arouse enthusiasm in the West even 5 years ago, are now not even perceived by the West.

However, there is a second factor, even more weighty than the first one - doubts (to put it mildly) that Lukashenka retains his subjectivity. An experienced diplomat of one of the leading EU states told ‘Salidarnasts’ in a private conversation: ‘Belarus is now perceived as Russia's backyard’.

Under such circumstances, the West simply sees no point in trying to negotiate anything with Lukashenka's representatives.

Through Lukashenka's Eyes

It is safe to say that the ruler of Belarus (and, therefore, his subordinates) looks at the situation radically differently. Let us try to reconstruct his view.

Lukashenka believes that he demonstrates miracles of disingenuousness avoiding direct participation in the aggression against Ukraine (‘and he could have cut it with a razor’). He, who is sure that he is the king of Belarus, does not even think that the West does not consider him an independent player.

On the contrary, Lukashenka believes that his ‘titanic efforts’ in terms of ‘minimising complicity in the war’ should be appreciated and rewarded by the European Union. Again, it is not clear why the EU has not yet offered any ‘pluses’ for ending the migration crisis. ‘Apparently, diplomats are not working well...’

And then everything is logical: the ‘soft’ Aleynik should be replaced by the ‘hard’ Ryzhenkou. The latter was given the task to ‘bring the diplomatic department to its senses’.

‘We need to shake up the Foreign Ministry to make it start working,’ said Lukashenka.

But neither ‘shaking up’ nor ‘shaking down’ will improve relations with the West. It's extremely difficult to even start a conversation on this topic because each side is acting based on its own idea of reality. These perceptions differ too radically.

4 years is enough time to realise that the old tricks don't work. But Lukashenka stubbornly continues acting in the same spirit, combining calls for dialogue with nasty deeds.

The regime has the same interest as before: ‘Accept us as we are and trade with us’. However, the EU has a new, quite different approach: ‘Security is more important than profit’.

As a result, the West, paradoxically, fulfils another wish of Lukashenka: ‘Leave us alone’. Except that this means that the ruler of Belarus is left alone with the Russian sworn friend. The consequences of this may turn out to be quite unpleasant for official Minsk.

‘Be afraid of your wishes, they tend to come true...’

What Could Move the Process Forward

The key fact is that now, if anyone is interested in warming (at least relative warming), it is certainly not the West. On the contrary, it considers it best to keep away as much as possible from the source of various dangers, which is now Lukashenka's regime.

Therefore, if the Belarusian authorities want to restore the bridges they have burnt, they will have to make the first step. And not a millimetre step, but a very significant and noticeable one.

The people, making decisions in the European Union, won't even notice cheap offers in the current circumstances. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto may come to Minsk five more times, but his country has no significant impact on the relations between the EU and Belarus.

What measures are needed to get the conversation at least just back on track? One competent interlocutor mentioned the release of all female political prisoners, Ales Bialiatski and Andrzej Poczobut, as an example of something that could attract the attention of the West.

The problem is that Lukashenka is not ready to pay for warming. More precisely, he believes that he has already done a lot without getting anything in return. It's a strange view, but it is what it is.

And until the ruler realises that it's not about ‘careless diplomats’, nothing will change. This is not 2008, not 2011 and especially not 2014. Neither Ryzhenkou nor anyone else will be able to improve relations without serious concessions.

The wall between Belarus and the EU is already as high as the Eiffel Tower. And with each new level, its further construction seems cheaper to the EU in all senses than its destruction.

We are already in a situation where the logic of isolation seems to too many people more reasonable than the resolution of disagreements. This is an intellectual and psychological illusion. But it is the one that dominates now.

The West simply has no motivation to resume the dialogue. They tried to create it with the ‘stick’, but attempts to blackmail the EU with migrants, as well as with other means, have failed. Small ‘carrots’ did not work either.

Therefore, the choice is simple: either Lukashenka creates such motivation by offering a huge ‘carrot’ or relations will be getting worse. This knot cannot be untangled with the help of fine motor skills.

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