Did Russia Decide To Nightmarize Lukashenka?

Very strange things happen.

Russian kamikaze drones of Iranian production Shahed-136 have recently appeared more frequent in the airspace of Belarus. "At first glance, this is not surprising," writes Kovalenko. "It is not surprising, because since 2022, the beginning of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has very actively used the airspace of Belarus for strikes on Ukrainian territory.

But, from about the second half of 2022, the intensity of the Belarusian military campaign began to decline and, in general, in 2023 and 2024 it was reduced to an absolute minimum.

On the other hand, the use of the airspace of Belarus by Russia for planning and carrying out raids on the territory of Ukraine seems quite rational, since, firstly, it allows in a number of directions to shorten the path, and secondly, to overcome the path over the Republic of Belarus in safety, minimizing the risks of destruction of enemy (Ukrainian) air defence. Why previously the air space of the Republic of Belarus was not used for this purpose is a question.

But, nevertheless, it is not necessary to say unequivocally that Russia has returned to the practice of using the the Belarusian air space and here is why.

The first Shahed-136 entered the Belarusian airspace on July 11 in the area of Loeu, bordering the Chernihiv region. And, it was very likely that the kamikaze drone was trying to shorten the path through Belarus in this way. But then the Mi-24 was raised to intercept a dangerous object, as well as the Su-30SM fighter jet.

On July 13, the incident was repeated. The Shahed-136 entered the Belarusian air space in the area of the same Loeu, Homel region and took a course... to Vitebsk! That night, the Belarusian Mi-24 and Su-30 were also on alert.

On July 16, the Shahed-136 flew to the air space of the Republic of Belarus near the village of Belaia Saroka, and then left the Republic of Belarus in the area of Kamaryn. But, just 4 hours later, one of the Shahed-136 flew to Belarus in the area of Naroulia and headed for Vitebsk. The Mi-24 and Su-30 of the Air Force of the Republic of Belarus were raised into the air on alert. In the area of Lyuban village, a kamikaze drone collapsed with the subsequent detonation.

Actually, very strange things.

On the one hand, in two cases, it is obvious that the Shahed-136 drones used the airspace of the Republic of Belarus to reduce the flight range in safely. But in two other cases, the kamikaze drones clearly took a course not in the direction of Ukraine at all!

At the same time, in all cases, the Belarusian aviation was on alert, as if no one had warned them from the Russian side that Shahed-136 would fly in.

The course of two kamikaze drones to Vitebsk could be explained by some technical or software malfunction of the Shahed-136 drones, but twice in a row and in such a short time? This is either an unrecoverable bug in the internal software or...

Or, I dare to assume, taking into account the reaction of the Air Force of the Republic of Belarus, that the Shahed-136 drones in the Belarusian sky is not exactly the expected guests, and therefore, not only aviation worked on them, but also other systems, for example, EW. It is possible that inexperienced operators of Belarusian electronic warfare systems knocked down the course of the drones and redirected the software failure in the northern direction – to Vitebsk.

Actually, there may be several versions of what is happening, but one thing is obvious – the initial penetrations of the Shahed-136 drones into the airspace of Belarus were planned, but their further actions there were clearly out of any plan.

Well, in fact, could Russia decide to nightmare Lukashenka with kamikaze drones sending them to Vitebsk? Or did it decide?..

Oleksandr Kovalenko, Facebook

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