What Did Putin & Lukashenka Discuss In Monastery?

The main topic was clearly Ukraine.

Lukashenka went to see Vladimir Putin again on July 25. His visit to Valaam lasted two days, and Lukashenka's press service showed only a video of the church and ducks, but did not report anything about the essence of the trip. Experts tell Belsat that Lukashenka and Putin are semi-secretly discussing pressure on Ukraine first and foremost.

The main thing is the attack on Ukraine

On the eve of the trip, Lukashenka's press service said that they would talk about “regional security, the international agenda, issues of developing bilateral relations, and promoting union projects”. There are no specifics, and the fact that they only publish videos and photos in nature indicates that Lukashenka and Putin do not want to report anything, according to historian and political observer Alexander Friedman.

“A wide range of topics are discussed there, starting with Ukraine, and perhaps there are also memories of the past — these are old people. And “Pool of the First” [Lukashenka's press service's Telegram channel] is silent, since the topics under discussion cannot be shown.

The current issues that they want to discuss concern, first of all, Ukraine, peace talks and the role of Belarus in these talks. I would also not rule out that another important issue is related to German citizen Rico Krieger, his fate and the possibility of exchange,” the expert says.

There is information that the Kremlin would like to exchange a German citizen, who was sentenced to death in Belarus, for FSB officer Vadim Krasikov, who is imprisoned in Germany, so the issue may be relevant.

The fact that the main topic is Ukraine is also said by Grigory Nizhnikov, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

“How the hostilities are going is one thing. Another thing is that Moscow has launched a diplomatic attack on Ukraine because of peace talks. I think that one of the topics will be the role of Lukashenka and Belarus in promoting this narrative and destabilizing the situation in Ukraine through a hybrid attack with a peace plan,” says Nizhnikov.

Putin and Lukashenka talked about the “peace plan” during their meeting in the spring.

“He and Putin said that they were ready for negotiations, that the Ukrainian people and military allegedly do not want this war, that it was all Zelensky who was losing legitimacy. Now Belarus is one of the Kremlin’s propaganda mouthpieces, but not the only one.

Russia is trying to promote these narratives through various actors. And through intra-Ukrainian Telegram channels, and through China, and through Trump and Orbán. This should snowball into Ukraine. They are watching how the situation inside Ukraine develops. But it is known that peace talks are far away and this is precisely a diplomatic attack,” notes the analyst at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

Lukashenka won't forget to talk about money

The second issue is the economy, which interests Lukashenka more. But here too, it is not without a link to the war in Ukraine. In addition to the fact that Lukashenka is interested in the Russian market, loans and logistical assistance for selling goods abroad, he and Putin want Belarus to work more and more for aggression against Ukraine.

“It is important for Russia that Belarus and its economy increasingly help Moscow's military industry. Lukashenka's interest here is understandable. We remember who was appointed ambassador to Russia — the former Minister of Industry. Therefore, something will be discussed very closely,” Grigory Nizhnikov continues.

Migration crisis in the background?

As for the topic of the migration crisis, which even China has joined in the discussion, the experts' opinions diverged. Minsk and Moscow are not very concerned about the fact that Poland complained to China and is threatening to close the borders, Nizhnikov believes.

“Here the question is to what extent both Lukashenka and Beijing believe that Warsaw will go all the way. I think both sides think that if they haven't closed the border in two years, then the question is how sincerely they intend to do it. I think they will wait until the last minute.

If transit is closed, it will be a big economic blow. But does Lukashenka expect that this will bring down his regime? Of course not.

He can tell the Kremlin that he is being pressured and needs support, Moscow can say: “Okay, if they close it, we will help.” Then they will simply shift this issue to the Polish-Chinese one and say that these are anti-Chinese and anti-Belarusian measures. I think Lukashenka will bargain here, but, as in the issue with political prisoners, he cannot show weakness to the West,” says Nizhnikov.

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