NYT: Kremlin Is Losing Influence At Post-Soviet Space

Russia’s grip is showing signs of strain.

President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan on Monday excoriated Russia for trying to duck responsibility in the downing of an Azerbaijani passenger jet last month, doubling down on a rare confrontation with the Kremlin that has highlighted Russia’s loss of influence in much of the former Soviet Union. The New York Times writes about this.

Today, the Brazilian Air Force's Accident Investigation and Prevention Center completed decoding the black boxes of the crashed Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) plane. According to Brazilian media, the extraction and analysis of data from the recorders has already been completed, and the information has been handed over to the Kazakh authorities.

“I can say with confidence that the blame for the fact that Azerbaijani citizens died in this disaster lies with representatives of the Russian Federation,” Mr. Aliyev said. “We demand justice, we demand the punishment of the guilty, we demand complete transparency and decent behavior.”

In a departure from protocol, Mr. Aliyev made those televised comments in Russian, rather than in Azerbaijani; analysts described that decision as both a nod of respect to the Russian-speaking relatives of the deceased pilots, as well as a sign that Mr. Aliyev wanted to be heard in Moscow.

While President Vladimir V. Putin apologized to Mr. Aliyev on Dec. 28 for “the tragic incident” that “took place in Russian airspace,” he stopped short of accepting Russian responsibility for it.

This has caused a storm of indignation among pro-government voices in Azerbaijan, who condemned Russia’s “imperial arrogance”. Farid Shafiyev, chair of the government-funded Center for Analysis of International Relations said Russia still looked down on all these former Soviet countries, which only deepens the split.

Across the former Soviet Union, Russia’s grip keeps showing signs of strain. Azerbaijan’s archenemy, Armenia, no longer sees Russia as the guarantor of its security and is looking to the West and to Iran for support. In Central Asia, China is ascendant, as the former Soviet republics there view Russia as weakened and distracted by its war in Ukraine under the leadership of the 72-year-old dictator-pensioner Putin. In Transnistria, the cessation of gas supplies has threatened the region's loyalty to Moscow.

The plane crash marked a turning point in relations between Baku and Moscow. Aliyev, confident in his position thanks to energy revenues and his victory over Armenia, is using the situation to further distance himself from Putin.

The investigation initiated by Kazakhstan has also been welcomed in Azerbaijan.

Kazakhstan’s president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said that sending the black boxes to Brazil was the only way “to ensure a fair and unbiased investigation.”

The AZAL plane crash has become further evidence of the limitations of the partnership between Azerbaijan and Russia, deepening the rift and highlighting Moscow's weakening influence in the region.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com