ISW: Russia May Attack NATO Sooner Than Intelligence Predicts
20- 12.10.2025, 11:49
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Sabotage and espionage activities show preparations for war with the Alliance.
Russia could become a real threat to NATO before 2036. Its sabotage and spying activities show preparations for a possible war with the Alliance.
Russia's report by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russia's constant drone sabotage and espionage against military bases and facilities in Europe may indicate that it is already preparing for a possible war with NATO
Analysts believe that Russia's long-range weapons and advanced drone production pose a direct threat to NATO. The Russian Federation is actively building new military forces and creating a strategic reserve of personnel that can be used both in Ukraine and in a possible war against the Alliance. This shows that Russia is capable of rebuilding its human resources despite heavy losses.
Experts suggest that after the end of active hostilities in Ukraine, Russia will be able to quickly deploy significant military forces on NATO's eastern flank.
The ISW notes that Russia is developing new tactics that allow it to conduct large-scale combat operations without extensive use of tanks and armored vehicles, limiting such capabilities in the enemy.
Analysts see no indication that the Kremlin will wait for the army to fully recover before launching aggressive actions against NATO countries. They warn that Russia is already gaining a lot of experience in modern warfare and could pose new threats immediately after the fighting in Ukraine is over. Therefore, they said, NATO should be ready to deter and neutralize these challenges.
Flights of unknown drones over Europe
In the last month, flights of unknown drones over military facilities and critical infrastructure have been recorded in the airspace of a number of European countries.
In particular, drones were spotted in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, Germany and France. In some cities, civilian airports were temporarily suspended because of this.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky suggests that such incidents may be provocations by the Kremlin - a kind of test of the reaction of European countries and preparation for a possible expansion of the war even before the end of hostilities in Ukraine.