Even The Z-economists Are Howling

Russia is in for some tough times in 2026.

The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMACP), which is close to Putin's regime, has concluded that the Russian economy will almost certainly face a recession next year, 2026. Such a statement from Z-economists confirms that things are really bad with Russia's economy, writes "Dialog".

"The composite leading indicator of the emergence of recession in the Russian economy has exceeded its critical threshold... The system has signaled a high probability of a decline in the physical volume of GDP in 2026," the report of pro-Kremlin analysts says.

The main reason for the deterioration of forecasts CMACP calls the increase in interest rates. So far, until the end of 2025, GDP growth will be supported by heated domestic demand, stimulated by the expectation of VAT increase. However, from 2026, this factor will disappear, and demand is likely to adjust downward.

Experts warn that the decline in GDP increases the risk of a systemic banking crisis. And Russia is already very close to it, the report said.

The forecasts for 2026 diverge between the CMACP and the Russian government. The Ministry of Economic Development expects GDP growth of 1.3%, while the consensus estimate of 33 analysts surveyed by the Central Bank is 1.6%. The World Bank recently lowered its forecast from 1.2% to 0.8% and predicts that Russia's economic growth until 2028 is unlikely to exceed 1%.

Thereby, even experts officially close to the government recognize that the Russian economy is on the verge of recession, and the combination of high interest rates and shrinking domestic demand could seriously hit the country's financial system as early as next year.

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