Russia's Tanker And Ship Construction Deadlines Have Been Disrupted

The Northern Sea Route is under threat.

The Russian Transport Ministry has proposed to postpone until March 2028 the introduction of restrictions, according to which the transportation of hydrocarbons and coal along the Northern Sea Route will be carried out only by Russian-built vessels. The Moscow Times.

According to the original plans, from March 1, 2026, export transportation of oil, gas, gas condensate and coal along the Northern Sea Route was to be carried out exclusively by vessels built at Russian shipyards. However, now the agency proposes to postpone the introduction of these restrictions for two years.

The postponement comes against the background of regular failure to meet the targets for cargo transportation through the Arctic. In 2024, 38 million tons of cargo was transported through the Northern Sea Route - more than half the amount required by Putin's 2018 decree, which set a target of 80 million tons by 2024.

By September 2024, Rosatom had lowered its forecast for shipments through the NSR to 117 million tons by 2030, although it had originally planned to reach 200 million tons. Putin himself in March estimated the prospects more cautiously - in 70-100 million tons by 2030.

The main problem of the Northern Sea Route development remains the acute shortage of specialized fleet. Of the required 57 vessels, only 27 are currently available. Sanctions, which cut Russia off from Western technologies, aggravate the situation - old ships have to be scrapped, and the construction of new ones is constantly delayed.

According to N.Trans Lab analysts, by 2030 there may be no more than five powerful nuclear-powered icebreakers left in service, which will make it impossible to ensure year-round navigation along the NSR.

At a meeting with the government in late March, Putin stated that despite years of discussions, a model for the development of the Northern Sea Route has not yet been developed, and key infrastructure decisions have not been made.

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