Meteorologist: Meteosondes To Lithuania Could Have Been Launched From The Grodno Area

They could have brought in Belarusian weather specialists.

Smuggled Belarusian balloons were most likely launched from the Hrodna area, meteorologist Hytis Valaika told LRT. In his opinion, it could be a coordinated operation carried out with the knowledge of the Belarusian authorities.

Western air currents prevail over Lithuania; according to average monthly data, south, southwest and west winds blew most often in Vilnius during 1991-2020. It is the southwest wind that is favorable for launching balloons from Grodno to reach the Lithuanian capital.

This wind blew on Sunday and Monday, October 26-27. Such favorable winds for smuggling are more common in autumn.

Valaika said that by knowing the wind direction, its speed and the path of the balloons, it is possible to calculate the reverse trajectory and determine where the probes were launched. Based on the data, there is a high probability that the balloons were launched "either from somewhere near Hrodna, or very close to the southern border of Lithuania, and also aiming towards Vilnius."

"Once, checking the trajectory, I even joked that, probably, directly from the site of their tobacco factory in Hrodna ("Neman." - Editor's note) are launched. As soon as dusk - they take them out of the shop, pack them and launch them right away," added Valaika.

The Belarusian weather experts could have been involved

According to the interlocutor, it's hard to say exactly how long the balloons will fly to Vilnius - it depends on many factors, but approximately 1-3 hours. The meteorologist believes that a mass directional launch of balloons requires special knowledge, so it's hard to rule out a coordinated operation, about which the Belarusian authorities are informed:

"I think that perhaps even Belarusian meteorologists are involved, or maybe their army, where there are specialists in the atmosphere, because in the army there are also such people who determine the direction of the wind."

He adds that since everything is very well planned, it's hard to believe that this is "someone's private activity to make money on the side."

"If these were simple smugglers, they wouldn't care where to launch - as long as it's into Lithuania. They have trackers, they would launch anywhere. And now it is obvious that the aim is directly on Vilnius or even on the territory of Vilnius airport. All the facts show that there is a very high probability that this is really an organized activity and everything is done intentionally," concluded the meteorologist.

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