The Perfect Trap For The Kremlin
9- 24.11.2025, 17:41
- 21,526
Ten principles for negotiating with Russia.
Russia has once again attacked Ukrainian civilians with hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and rockets... Given the inevitable pitfalls of an aggressor deciding the outcome of a war on its own, I will try to take a step back and give a brief historically informed overview of how negotiations might actually proceed. Here are ten basic principles.
1. No concessions up front.
Ideas about banning NATO, not demanding reparations, or not punishing war crimes are gifts to Moscow even before negotiations. To do so is unfair, dangerous and humiliates Ukrainians themselves.
2. Ukrainians must be heard.
Russia knows why it attacked - to destroy Ukrainian independence. If the Ukrainian position is ignored, negotiations will turn into a Russian diktat, and that will lead to disaster.
3. Peace without victim participation does not work.
After World War I, the exclusion of aggressors created the path to a new war. Now the situation is even worse: the country that was attacked is actually eliminated from the negotiations. A peace made without Ukraine is doomed.
4. It matters who started the war.
After 1945, changing borders by force is a crime. Any deal that rewards Russia for invading undermines world order and triggers new wars.
5. Ukraine's defeat equals a new nuclear race.
If Ukraine is forced into an unfair deal, its neighbors will decide: either its own nuclear weapons or occupation. This is a direct path to nuclear chaos. Ukrainian resistance is holding it back.
Trump's desire for a quick Nobel Peace Prize is the perfect trap for the Kremlin. A hasty, ill-conceived "peace plan" will only deepen the war.
7. Wars are defined by domestic politics.
Russia is at war over Putin's ambitions. Ukraine is fighting for people's life and freedom. If only Zelensky is pressured, without considering the society, the war will not end. Ukrainians are fighting not for the president, but for the existence of the nation and the state.
8. Real enforcement mechanisms are needed.
Russia has violated all agreements with Ukraine. Any guarantees from Moscow are worthless. The only thing that works is NATO. Russia only attacks those not in the Alliance.
9. Sovereignty is a line that cannot be crossed.
Russia wants to destroy Ukrainian statehood. Any agreement imposing constitutional changes, ban on alliances or control over defense on Ukraine is a legalization of aggression and a guarantee of a new war.
10. Peace = rebuilding Ukraine.
Peace is rebuilding cities, economies, institutions, communities. It is long-term support, movement to the EU, investment and guarantees. If not, the world will fall apart and Russia will attack again.
This war can be ended, but the basic logic remains the same: Ukrainians must be supported so that Russia no longer seeks to destroy their country. That is the basis. Negotiations will be effective when that is accomplished.
Timothy Snyder, Substack.com.
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