Volodymyr Fesenko: Trump's Position Has Changed Seven Times In One Year
8- 31.12.2025, 15:56
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Photo: ua.news
Ukraine will continue to fight for its independence next year.
Well-known Ukrainian political scientist, head of the Center for Applied Political Research "Penta" Vladimir Fesenko in an interview with the website Charter97.org told how 2025 was for Ukraine:
- The year was difficult, quite problematic. First of all - because of the beginning of the presidency of Donald Trump. Our partnership with the United States has undergone significant changes. One of the main challenges that appeared for Ukraine in 2025 is the termination of U.S. financial and military assistance.
This, of course, significantly affected Ukraine's capabilities, the potential of resistance to Russian aggression. However, we managed to maintain partnership relations with European countries, and most of them even united in a "Coalition of the willing" to support Ukraine. And the Europeans are helping us both in the purchase of American weapons and financially.
- What are the main events of the past year you would single out?
- One of the main events for Ukraine - at the end of the year, the European Union decided to grant us a soft loan for 90 billion euros, which will help us withstand Russian aggression next year and even in 2027.
At the same time, we should also note the positive trend that Trump is actively seeking to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. In 2025, US-mediated peace talks began in shuttle diplomacy. More often than not, these are not direct talks between Russia and Ukraine, but talks through the United States.
For virtually the entire year, we have seen fairly active negotiations to end the war. There was even an attempt at direct negotiations in Istanbul, but not very successful and rather such an imitation on the part of the Russian Federation. Nevertheless, the very fact of peace talks creates a certain window of opportunity for the next year.
At the end of the year, a lot of substantial developments on a possible future peace agreement were formulated. But, unfortunately, the same problem that has been there all year remains. And it remains for next year as well - Putin does not want to end this war. He doesn't want to negotiate on a compromise basis. Another of the problems of the negotiation process is the constant fluctuation of Trump's positions.
For 10 months of peace talks, Trump's position on the terms of ending the war has changed 7 times. And these constant fluctuations, these Trump swings, the inconsistency of Trump and his administration in the peace process, unfortunately, do not contribute to ending the war as quickly as possible. So there are both positive and negative trends on Trump's part. It is the US president who is the main factor in the negotiation process right now. I think he will remain such a factor in 2026.
I would add that we had another important event in relations with the US. It is the signing of the resource agreement. By the way, in the history with the resource agreement and in the peace talks, I would note another important trend in relations between the US and Ukraine. We managed not immediately, but gradually to find the optimal tactics of interaction with the United States. We have repeatedly during this year, both in the negotiations on the resource agreement and in the peace talks, faced the fact that the U.S. exerted very strong pressure on us. But we withstood it and did not say "no" to the Americans. And we started negotiations on specific positions, on specific points.
In the end, we managed to reach compromise documents. Such was the case with the resource agreement signed in May. And the negotiations to end the war also show that we can neutralize this American pressure and gradually reach some kind of agreed compromise documents. That's how the current 20-point peace plan is. It has not been fully agreed yet, but it also shows that Ukrainian diplomacy already knows how to work with Trump and his administration. I believe that this is also an important achievement for Ukraine.
So it has been a difficult, problematic year for us in this respect. However, we are holding back the Russian offensive. Yes, Russia manages to advance, but slowly. And Russia has not reached a turning point in the war. And Ukraine demonstrates that it has the potential to contain the Russian invasion. Ukraine will continue to fight for its independence next year.
I would also like to note that 2025 has become a very significant year for Ukraine's domestic politics. There were big changes in the internal political processes.
This year the topic of anti-corruption investigations and political struggle around them became very topical. Sometimes it manifested itself in conflict forms.
Anti-corruption authorities of Ukraine, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office conducted a number of high-profile investigations this year. Including against high-status people, members of the government. Some of them resigned precisely as a result of anti-corruption investigations. Some of them have been suspected and are under investigation. The investigation has also affected people in the inner circle of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, which has become a big challenge for him. There was an attempt in July to limit the powers of anti-corruption bodies. But it caused a negative reaction of the society.
Then Zelensky listened to this manifestation of public opinion. He canceled those bills that limited the powers of NABU and SAP. And the powers of these bodies were legally restored. This was a very important event. Because it showed the activity and influence of civil society in Ukraine, which persists even in conditions of war. And that the Ukrainian government listens to public demands, to public positions. It was a significant symbol that Ukrainian democracy continues to work despite the absence of elections. And at the end of the year there was a very high-profile high-profile investigation - Operation Midas, which eventually resulted in the resignation of the Minister of Energy and the Minister of Justice.
One more high-profile domestic political event of 2025 - the resignation in late November of the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak. Yermak had been head of the Office of the President for five years. He was the second most influential statesman in the country after the president of Ukraine. This event had a very significant impact on Ukrainian politics, on the interaction and relationships of various state bodies.
There was a risk of a political crisis due to the anti-corruption investigation. But it was Yermak's resignation that removed this risk. By the end of the year the internal political situation in Ukraine, in my opinion, has significantly stabilized. Although the topic of possible elections in Ukraine is now being actively discussed. It was in the 25th year that the most significant internal political changes took place.
- What are Ukraine's hopes for the next year?
- We strive for the end of the war, but on terms that will be more or less acceptable to us. For us it is unacceptable to end the war on the terms of Russian ultimatums - unilateral withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass and other concessions. As polls of sociologists show, the majority of Ukrainians reject this option.
Nevertheless, I think that in 2026 Ukraine will continue to fight for independence, for its sovereignty. Ukraine is not going to capitulate to Russia and will defend its territory.
As, for example, the counter-operation near Kupyansk shows, Ukrainian troops have the potential not only for defense, but even for counter-offensive actions. However, much will depend on whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to stabilize the front line.
This will affect not only the military situation, but also the further negotiation process. Many commentators, analysts and politicians estimate that in 2026, there will be more chances for peace agreements to end the war in Ukraine. But whether these chances will be realized depends on the military situation and the negotiation situation. How active and consistent the U.S. will be in the negotiation process, including putting pressure not only on Ukraine but also on Russia. A lot will depend on this.
Much will depend on the internal socio-economic and financial situation in Russia. Well, another important factor here is the price of oil. And in general, the global economic situation in the world. I think that this may influence the negotiations on the end of the war and Putin's readiness to agree to some compromise options. Therefore, the main issue of war and peace for Ukraine in 2026 will be more aggravated. But there are still risks of war continuation. This is evident from recent events. For example, Russia's information and psychological special operation with a statement about the alleged attack on Putin's residence. This is clearly aimed at disrupting the negotiation process. Russia wants to escalate the war. It is very visible now.
On the other hand, I think that the negotiation process will continue. In 2026, there will be not one, but several attempts to reach real peace agreements. But whether it will be possible to do so will depend, as I have already said, on the military situation on the fronts in Ukraine, the situation inside Russia and the negotiating actions of the United States.
With regard to the internal situation in Ukraine, I think that next year we will see the continuation of anti-corruption investigations. They will, of course, influence domestic political processes as well. This will be a challenge for President Zelensky. There may be new personnel reshuffles. By the way, many personnel issues have not been resolved yet.
A new head of the Office of the President of Ukraine will most likely be appointed. But one way or another, the internal political processes in Ukraine will develop very, very contradictory. Depending on how the military and negotiation situation will develop.
And the elections, about which much is being said now, can only take place in Ukraine if a peace agreement is reached. If it is reached, it is very likely that then not only elections will be held, but possibly also an all-Ukrainian referendum on the approval of this peace agreement. And this will also lead to an aggravation of the internal political struggle in Ukraine.
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