"The Situation With The Belarusian Economy Looks Exemplary"

What problems await the regime after the end of the war.

The meeting between Ukrainian and US Presidents Vladimir Zelensky and Donald Trump in Washington has put talk of ending the war back on the agenda. Experts believe that the peace treaty will be a serious test for the Russian war economy.

What will happen to the Belarusian economy if the peace agreement is signed? Will it face crisis and collapse? The website Charter97.org talked about it with economist and political observer Dmitry Bolkunts:

- The Belarusian economy is secondary to the Russian economy. It is obvious that even the end of the war and the signing of any peace treaty will not mean the winding down of the military industry. On the contrary, it will only intensify for some time, because, firstly, it is necessary to renew all military stocks that were exhausted during the war. Therefore, the state order will remain in effect for a certain period. In addition, Putin may be preparing for a new war, accumulating resources. I would believe that cooperation will only intensify in the near future.

What concerns the impact of the end of the war on the Belarusian economy, much will depend on the sanctions policy. If the U.S., for example, starts lifting sanctions against a number of Russian enterprises, it may indirectly affect Belarus.

The question is which sanctions will be lifted and which ones will remain. This is the subject of discussions. At the same time, if Belarus really wants to get out of isolation and strengthen its sovereignty, the authorities should take steps to balance foreign trade.

To do this, concrete actions are needed: the release of all political prisoners without exception, stopping repression, closing criminal cases and creating conditions for the return of thousands of Belarusians to their homeland. Everyone should be able to return home without consequences.

The economy cannot develop under the sanctions pressure. Tourism cannot develop when there are political prisoners and repression in the country.

After Trump's call, Lukashenko, if he thinks at least a little with his head, should release all political prisoners in the coming days and without any conditions. This would be the basis for preserving what is still left in the Belarusian economy and industry. Otherwise, the country is doomed to degradation. The war is ending, but Belarus should not remain on the sidelines of global processes between Europe, the United States, Russia and Ukraine. Otherwise, it will be simply wiped out, its interests will be trampled.

- Belarusian brands are being squeezed out by Chinese analogs in the Russian market. Even MAZ has already started having problems. Will this trend continue?

- The situation looks quite indicative. Why today the US is moving closer to Russia, although officially the Kremlin recognizes it as an "unfriendly country" and Putin is meeting with the head of this very state?

The reason is simple: Washington is extremely afraid of China's strengthening in Russia, and the Americans do not like it. So they are trying to pull Moscow away from Beijing. The massive penetration of Chinese companies into the Russian market worries the United States, because we are talking not only about economic, but also military and political influence of China.

This is noticed both in Europe and in the West. The situation may change in the future. As for the role of Belarusian enterprises in the Russian economy, their influence is negligible. After 2020, the Belarusian industry completely turned to the east, as the western market was closed. And this is a serious problem.

Belarusian enterprises are uncompetitive on the world markets. Today Belarus is unable to produce products, including the same MAZs, which could compete outside Russia.

This is a huge problem, and it will become more and more pronounced in the coming years. Belarus has fallen behind in technology and many spheres. The Belarusian authorities are only destroying the economy by their actions.

It is necessary to think today what place Belarus will occupy in 5-10-15 years in the European and global economy, what role it will play. There can be no competitive production in conditions of isolation. After all, these are technologies, exchange of experience, training of personnel.

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