“Joining NATO is key to Ukraine’s security”

An American expert discussed a multi-layered defence system and security guarantees for Kyiv.

What security guarantees are the United States offering Ukraine under the current circumstances, and what could this mean in practice?

Luke Coffey, a security expert at the respected Hudson Institute and former advisor to the UK Ministry of Defence, answered this question in an exclusive interview with Charter97.org:

— You have a lot of people in Washington describing so-called Article 5 type security guarantees. I honestly think these people really don't know how Article 5 works. I don't think we're going to get an Article 5 type security guarantee from the United States. Maybe — from other European countries, but for the United States to offer a firm security guarantee like NATO's Article 5, it would have to be in the form of a treaty, and every treaty according to the US Constitution has to be ratified by a two thirds majority in the Senate. So, I just don't see how President Trump could submit a treaty to the US Senate and have a big enough majority for it to pass.

Also, I don't think it would be the right course of action for the United States to give a unilateral security guarantee to Ukraine. I say this as one of the strongest supporters of Ukraine in Washington, D.C. but in this era of burden sharing inside NATO, why wouldn't we just get Ukraine inside NATO and then we all can share the burden of security? I think this is the most direct way to ensure Ukraine's security, that it should be a member of NATO. But this also is unlikely to happen because President Trump has said multiple times in recent days and weeks that Ukraine will not join NATO, at least in the short term. So, what I've been proposing is a layered approach to security.

The first layer would be a civilian, unarmed monitoring mission that would leverage technology and unmanned systems to patrol on both sides the line of occupation. Who would form this mission? I am not sure. I have a few ideas I've written about maybe Organization of Turkic states or maybe the Gulf Cooperation Council — countries where both sides feel like they can work with and neither side has too much of a stake.

Then, the second layer would be the European boots on the ground. This would be the Brits, the French, the Germans, the Turks putting troops on the ground in Ukraine. They wouldn't necessarily have to be close to the line of occupation, but they would be positioned in places of the likely avenues of approach, the routes that Russia may use if they were to invade again. This would also include air policing and Black Sea patrols.

The third layer would be America's what I call "over the horizon role". President Trump has made it clear that no US Boots will be on the ground, but we could play a supporting role by providing air to air refueling, logistical support on moving troops in and out of Ukraine, providing intelligence. We could also, I think contribute to air policing, Black Sea patrols. And perhaps more importantly, we need to enhance a US-Ukraine defense industrial relationship and continue ensuring that Ukraine has the weapons and training it needs for the armed forces it requires. At the end of the day it's going to be the Ukrainian military that provides the ultimate security guarantee for Ukraine.

Then, the fourth layer is the Euro-Atlantic component. While NATO membership is not a possibility and EU accession talks will be slow, the Euro-Atlantic community needs to take steps to keep the Ukrainian flag flying alongside the NATO flag and EU flag. This could be the creation of a NATO certified center of excellence on modern warfare. They could be based in Ukraine where NATO can learn the lessons from Ukraine over the recent years of fighting. It could be inviting Ukraine to participate and send troops as part of NATO's response force. This has happened in the past. There's no reason why it can't happen again. Maybe the EU can conduct a CSDP (Common Security Defense Policy) training mission in Western Ukraine to keep the Euro-Atlantic integration path going.

Then the fifth layer to the layered security approach would be NATO's eastern flank. This doesn't directly impact Ukraine, but it is part of the bigger picture of keeping Russia deterred from future aggression against the Baltic states or the Black Sea countries. This means keeping NATO forward troops (US troops included) at their current levels even if there is a peace deal, because history tells us that Russia will be back. It may be in three years, it may be in five years, it could be in 10 years, but Russia will be back and we have to be ready.

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