"Trump Can Win, But It Will Take Tough Measures"

Where is the weak point of the Russian economy?

What is happening to the Russian economy after three and a half years of war in Ukraine? This is what ex-US State Department sanctions policy coordinator, former American ambassador to Poland, and expert at the Atlantic Council think tank Daniel Fried told in an interview with Charter97.org.

- Vladimir Milov, a Russian economist now living outside Russia, wrote about it. I believe their economy is vulnerable. Sanctions and other forms of economic pressure have hurt the Russian economy, but we can do more. If we are serious about economic pressure on Russia, we should put pressure on Russia's largest export, the sale of oil. There are different ways to do this. Right before the Anchorage meeting, the US announced additional duties against India because it buys Russian oil. I appreciate the symbolism, but it seemed like a clumsy decision to me. First of all, why go only against India but not China? If you are going to fight Russian oil, then fight Russian oil.

I don't think it would be advisable to try to block all Russian oil supplies at once. Perhaps we should slow down the pace more slowly. We did that with Iranian oil, threatening economic sanctions on anyone who buys Iranian oil, but lifting those sanctions if they reduced their purchases of Iranian oil every six months.

I've been talking to various energy experts about what we can do. Without going into details, the fact is that the options are there. The price of oil is generally low right now. Supply is not that tight. So, we have several options to nail the Russians.

The goal is to go against their oil revenues, not against production volumes. There are ways to do that. We have to do it, put pressure on Russia, make it clear that we, the U.S., will help the Ukrainians buy weapons on a permanent basis. That can be done even if the American taxpayers don't foot the entire bill. There are various ways to do this. Put pressure on Russia and tell Putin that if he doesn't negotiate a just end to the war in line with what Trump has laid out, the pressure will build. Trump should do that. But the problem is that this American president is approaching the line of serious pressure on Russia, but he hasn't crossed it yet. He needs to do that if he wants to win. He can win, but it will require tough measures.

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