The U.S. Assessed The Probability Of Nuclear Threat During The Joint Exercises Of Russia And Belarus

Analysts state a sharp change in the rhetoric of Moscow and Minsk.

On September 12, Russia and Belarus began joint military exercises "Zapad-2025" - the first since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The maneuvers are held in Belarus, as well as in the Baltic and Barents Seas.

According to Minsk and Moscow, about 30 thousand military personnel are taking part, but only 8 thousand are deployed directly on the territory of Belarus.

For comparison: in 2021, about 200 thousand people participated in similar exercises. Experts note that the current scale is noticeably smaller, which points to the limited resources of Russia, drawn into the war against Ukraine.

American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) emphasizes that the exercises do not demonstrate the Kremlin's desire for nuclear escalation.

Russian and Belarusian officials have softened their rhetoric in recent days, likely after Russian drones invaded Polish airspace.

Although Russian propaganda media had previously made accented statements about practicing the use of nuclear weapons.

Secretary of Belarus' Security Council Alexander Wolfovich said that Zapad-2025 is exclusively defensive in nature and is aimed at "ensuring the military security of the Union State."

This pitch contrasts with earlier statements about "missile responses" to militarization near Belarus' borders. ISW analysts believe that Moscow and Minsk have abandoned attempts to use the maneuvers as cover for nuclear blackmail against the West.

The institute's report emphasizes: "Russia is not seeking nuclear escalation, and the likelihood of using nuclear weapons remains extremely low." Against the background of the start of the exercises, Poland has completely closed its border with Belarus.

Lithuania also said it was ready to immediately close border crossings in case of any provocations. According to experts, the Kremlin and Minsk deliberately reduced the scale of the exercises and moved the main maneuvers away from the western borders.

This demonstrates caution and understanding: any aggressive actions close to NATO can still trigger a tough response.

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