"Black Swan" For Putin

How the accident with Kadyrov's son could change the balance of power in the Caucasus.

A real drama for power is unfolding in Chechnya. A recent accident in which, according to media reports, Ramzan Kadyrov's son was involved has exposed what had previously only been guessed: the republic's leader is losing control and his clan is under attack.

Why the crisis in Russia's most explosive region could be a real gift for Ukraine and a nightmare for the head of the Kremlin, "Telegraf".

Politologist Taras Zagorodny explains that the latest developments confirm fears about the Chechen leader's health.

- Since, judging by the latest reports, Kadyrov does have health problems. This and, judging by the way he is feverishly trying to promote all his relatives and his sons to the authorities, it means that the situation may not actually be very good," the expert says.

- According to Zagorodny, the Chechen leader is trying to consolidate power at any cost for his clan.

- He is trying to consolidate his clan so that it can take an active part in either sharing power or being present," the political scientist says.

The mysterious accident involving one of Kadyrov's sons has shown that many people are dissatisfied with what is happening.

- I believe that this accident is not accidental. I think that many people are unhappy with what is happening. They don't want Kadyrov to be strengthened in Chechnya," Zagorodny believes. The expert adds that even some of the Chechen leader's inner circle are playing against him.

The problem is that his eldest son Adam Kadyrov is simply unable to overtake his father's power. Political scientist Zagorodny leaves him no chance: "It is clear that Adam Kadyrov himself cannot completely seize all power. Because he is such a typical major, you might call him."

There is simply a gulf between the influence and even the intelligence of father and son: "After all, Kadyrov already had some kind of past behind him. He was involved in wars there. His father was behind him. And here is a man without authority," Zagorodny explains.

The political scientist draws attention to the fact that Adam hardly appears in public, and this also says a lot. "His mental capacity, I think, is much worse than his father's. And there is no such authority," says the expert. However, Ramzan Kadyrov is still trying to promote his son, realizing that there are no other options to preserve the dynasty. "He would like to see him in some format in power," Zagorodny summarizes.

The struggle for power in the Caucasus opens up new opportunities for Ukraine. Zagorodny bluntly says: "The fact that this kind of infighting in the Caucasus is beginning is very good, because Chechnya is the most explosive region."

The expert explains why it is Chechnya that has real prospects of secession from Russia. "This is a region with great prospects for independence because they have an external border with Georgia. Nearby is Dagestan," the political scientist notes.

Zagorodny sees in this region the potential for creating an entire transportation corridor independent of Moscow. "Given the possibility of Dagestan's access to the Caspian Sea through Chechnya, a certain transportation corridor is being built. This means that an economic base for independence may emerge," the expert details.

"Accordingly, the more instability there is in the country, the better for us," Zagorodny notes.

The expert is sure that the crisis in Chechnya could be a fatal mistake by the Russian head of state. "It will be such, maybe, a black swan for Putin, because the Kadyrovites are Putin's personal project," says the political scientist.

Zagorodny reveals another important aspect that makes Kadyrov vulnerable in Moscow. It turns out that the Chechen favorite has virtually no allies among Russian siloviki. "Russia's big siloviki may feud against each other, but they have a single opinion on which they agree: Kadyrov should have been nailed the day before yesterday," the expert says.

The political analyst explains where such hatred for the Chechen leader on the part of Russian security agencies comes from. "Because, in their opinion, he stole the victory in the Second Chechen War from them," Zagorodny says. This outdated insult makes Kadyrov's position in Moscow extremely precarious, especially now that he is losing his health and cannot rely on the support of his weak son.

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