The Telegraph: AFU Strikes On Russian Oil Exports Have Had Their Strongest Effect In 4 Years

RF has no time to rebuild damaged plants.

Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian oil hubs over the past week in a bid to wipe out Russia's gains from soaring oil prices and easing sanctions, writes The Telegraph.

So far, Ukrainian drones have attacked oil hubs in Russia's Baltic Sea four times in a row this week, including Ust-Luga, one of Russia's main export centers for oil products, through which some 18 million tons of fuel oil passes annually, and nearby Primorsk, another important Russian port. New satellite images from Ust-Luga show thick veils of smog, as well as damage to storage tanks and technical trestles. A fire is also still burning in the port of Primorsk, presumably due to an oil spill.

According to Reuters, the terminal at Ust-Luga is still closed after previous attacks, jeopardizing oil processing at four of Russia's largest refineries. Kirishi, Yaroslavl, Moscow and Ryazan, which process about 400,000 barrels of oil per day, could be forced to cut crude supplies due to shipping restrictions.

Analysts suggest the attacks could pose a "serious threat" to the Kremlin's ability to export oil, its main export and a vital component of the country's economy. The oil and gas sector accounted for about 30 percent of Russia's federal budget in 2024.

"This is the most serious threat to Russia's oil and oil products exports since the war began. The thoughtfulness, scale and focus of the attacks, as well as their timing and execution, have all combined to create an effect that I personally cannot recall in more than four years of war," said energy analyst Boris Aronstein.

Part of the success of the recent strikes is due to their persistence, said Isaac Levy, an analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

"While Russia has been rebuilding damaged oil refineries for weeks, Ukraine's campaign of repeated drone strikes has deliberately slowed down the rebuilding timeline," he said.

The pace of attacks shows no sign of abating. On Saturday night, Ukraine struck the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the central Russian city of Yaroslavl, one of the country's five largest refineries, with an annual output of more than 15 million tons.

In the meantime, Ukraine's own Flamingo missile was used to strike an explosives plant in the Samara region, where Ukraine claims to produce more than 30,000 tons of military-grade explosives annually.

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