China Expands Trade Route To Europe Bypassing Russia

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service pointed out some interesting details.

China and Kazakhstan are accelerating the development of the Trans-Caspian transportation route bypassing Russia. If the plans are realized, Moscow could lose billions of dollars in transit revenues between Asia and Europe.

The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reports that.

Beijing plans to significantly increase cargo traffic to Europe through the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the "Middle Corridor," in the coming years. The route passes through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, allowing it to completely bypass Russian territory.

Although this route is more complicated than traditional Russian transit due to the combination of railroad transportation, sea crossings and customs procedures of several countries, China and Kazakhstan are actively investing in its development. The main reasons include sanctions risks, declining confidence in Russia as a transit state and the desire to reduce dependence on unstable sea routes.

To develop the corridor, Kazakhstan Railways (KTZ) plans to invest about $10 billion in modernizing railway, port and terminal infrastructure by 2030.

Already in 2026, it is planned to build about 900 km of new railway tracks. In particular, the Ayagoz - Bakhty section will create the third railroad crossing on the border with China. Thanks to this, the capacity of the route may increase from 55 million to 100 million tons of cargo per year by 2030.

In addition, KTZ will invest more than $100 million in the construction of six new cargo ships for transportation across the Caspian Sea between the ports of Aktau, Kuryk and Baku.

With the expansion of the transport corridor, KTZ is also preparing for an IPO in 2026 with a possible placement of shares in Kazakhstan, London and Hong Kong. They plan to use the proceeds to further develop infrastructure and upgrade rolling stock.

According to the TMTM association, traffic volumes along the route have increased from 2.76 million tons in 2023 to 4.48 million tons in 2024. In the first quarter of 2026, about 173 container trains have already passed through the corridor, and Kazakhstan expects to increase this figure to 600 by the end of the year. In 2027, this figure may increase by another 67%.

According to analysts, after the route reaches full capacity, Russia may finally lose its status as a key transit hub between Asia and Europe, which will result in multi-billion dollar losses for it.

In addition, Kazakhstan has finally abandoned the participation of Russian contractors in the construction of three combined heat and power plants in Kokshetau, Semey and Ust-Kamenogorsk. The projects will be implemented by the Kazakh-Singapore consortium, and commissioning of the facilities is scheduled for 2029.

The construction of thermal power plants was initially discussed with the participation of the Russian side, but due to unresolved issues of financing Astana decided to continue the implementation of projects without Russian companies.

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