Ukraine Has Found Moscow's Weak Spot
2- 22.09.2026, 15:38
- 2,890
By New Year's, 20 to 25 regions in Russia may be in for a shock.
Leaders’ Week has begun at the UN. Reports of meetings between heads of state are pouring in, and, as is customary, ideas about reform are being floated (Russia proposes expanding the UN Security Council, Erdogan has called for the abolition of the veto, etc.). Final preparations are underway ahead of the meeting between Trump and Xi.
Meanwhile.
Last week, Russians killed 7 people in the Kharkiv region; more than 70 were wounded or injured.
Just this week, on the night of September 21, five drones attacked Lozova, killing a woman. A mother of many children was also killed in the Lozova community; her 13-year-old son suffered burns over 60% of his body.
Izyum, Zolochiv, and the Chuhuiv district are being bombed nonstop.
Last night, the Russians killed four people in Dnipro, and six more were wounded.
Odessa is under constant attack. Sumy and Zaporizhzhia are under regular attacks, and Kherson is a living hell. There has been a lot of talk about Oleshky lately; a humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding there.
Unfortunately, in many parts of the occupied territories, the Russians are simply finishing off the very people they supposedly “liberated” and “protected.”
The Russian Federation’s attacks on the railway continue unabated. Incidents involving trains are being reported; I won’t repeat myself. Railroad workers are doing their best, but the fact remains—rail travel has become highly unpredictable, not only for commuter trains in frontline regions but now for all trains. In the past, a trip from Kharkiv to Kyiv was effortless and comfortable—five hours, and you’re in the capital. Now it’s a lottery.
However, transportation is generally available; you just need to prepare a little more. Especially when it comes to clothing and footwear, taking the weather into account. It’s best to assume that a trip from a car or the metro to another car or the metro will involve a sudden walk through an autumn forest or a plowed field across a railroad embankment.
In response to Trump’s persistent requests, Ukraine is maintaining a high intensity of attacks on Russian oil refineries.
After all, we cannot refuse our main partner, who is solidifying its status as a global fuel exporter—primarily diesel—by cutting off the Russians’ supply from the Western Hemisphere and Europe.
What’s particularly important here.
On September 20, an oil refinery in Moscow was ablaze. Three days earlier, there was an attack on the Yaroslavl refinery (the 9th this year). On September 6, the refinery in Ryazan took a serious hit.
These refineries serve the Moscow metropolitan area, home to over 22 million people. Fuel shortages in Moscow and the Moscow Region will intensify, which will negatively impact other regions from which fuel will be diverted.
This morning, the Kuibyshev Oil Refinery in Samara began emitting smoke; yesterday, there was some haze in Ufa. Let me remind you that Samara (3 refineries) and Ufa (3 refineries) are the cornerstones of Russian oil refining.
The next challenge awaiting our fellow Russians is winter fuel. In just a month, this topic will become very relevant.
In short, there are grounds for discussing de-escalation on the eve of winter.
The experience of focusing attention on Moscow on September 20 showed that in just three days, Ukraine can amass enough weapons to overwhelm even the world’s most powerful air defense and missile defense system.
This means that, roughly speaking, once every three days (10 times a month), Ukraine could reduce some regional center in Russia to tatters.
The nuance is that, for Ukraine, the suffering of civilians in Russia is not an end in itself. That is why ordinary Russians fear Ukrainian drones far less than they fear Russian air defense systems. However, the Russian leadership’s ruthless approach will inevitably lead to reciprocal consequences.
Bottom line: theoretically, if the Kremlin proves unwilling to de-escalate, around 20–25 regions in central Russia will be shaken up by New Year’s…
Alexey Kopytko, Telegram )