Has recession started in Belarus?

According to the results of January-August 2009 the GDP of Belarus can make 99.8% to the 8 months of the last year. In fact it is the first of the crisis in Belarus.

As informed by “Ezhednevnik”, if this index remains unchanged by the time of official presentation of the results by the Belarusian National Statistical Committee (by the end of the first ten days of September) would remain unchanged, the government would have to announce beginning of recession in the Belarusian economy.

Starting from May this year, a serious growth retardation of continues in Belarus. In January-May, as compared to January-April, Belarusian GDP has grown from 101.2% to 101.4%. But in January-June GDP was 100.3%. Summing up the results of January-July, some improvement took place, the GDP reached 100.4%.

But as it turned out, it is an imaginary improvement. By the one-year “anniversary” of the global financial and economic crisis, which some experts time to the official bankruptcy of US mortgage banks in September 2008, the Belarusian economy reached the bottom for the first time.

According to preliminary estimations, in January-August the downfall of the manufacturing output continued. While in January-July last year as compared to the same index of 2008 the decline of output in industry in general was 3.9%, and in January-August 4.3%.

As for concrete trades, downfall in Industrial Ministry continued. The production grown in enterprises of this sphere as compared to 8 months of 2008 was 74.2%. As before, Architecture and Construction Ministry, Paper and Wood industry, Light Industry, Minsk, Minsk region, Mahilyou and Brest regions are lagging behind as compared with the last year. As compared to July production by Belarusian State Food industry has considerably decreased: in January-July its output was 109.8%, and in January-August 104%.

Agriculture production has become much lower than in July. In January-July it was 108.8%, and the estimate of January-August is 103.5%. And the downfall has taken in all the regions, with the largest downfall in Brest region (from 109.5% in January-July to 103% in January-August).

Some growth in the service sector, retail trade and construction the government had been counting on in its struggle with the crisis, hasn’t been able to influence the economy growth seriously.

8 months of the year 2009 initially estimated, the negative balance of the foreign trade was $3.57 billion, and it has grown by almost $440 mln over the month.

Goods and services export was $14.73 billion (which makes 55.6% to the analogous period of the last year), import was $18.3 billion (63.3%). The negative balance of trade was $4.4 billion, the positive balance in services was $830 million.