Oil And Gas War: Hush Before Storm

Despite the threats, Minsk has decided not to demand from Russian oil producers to pay the additional transit fee in the amount of 20%.

However, experts conclude that the contradictions between the allies have not been resolved yet, Belsat informs.

"The unresolved political issues left the oil and gas issues unresolved, too," – political commentator Vital Tsyhankou says.

The conflict caused great economic damage to Belarus

According to the Russian Central Dispatch Management, in the past year, Moscow cut oil supplies to Belarus by 20%, compared to the year before last. According to the September statement of the Belarusian Prime Minister Andrei Kabiakou, it deepened the economic decline in Belarus by 0.3%. The loss was much greater at year-end.

"There is economic crisis in Russia, there is no extra money, and such economic entities as Gazprom, oil companies and others are not going to forgive the debts of Belarus once again. This has largely changed the situation, when economic issues in many senses have been prevailing over the political and ideological ones," – Tsyhankou says.

Lukashenka is blackmailing

Lukashenka is trying to get gas allowances and to increase the oil supply by means of political leverage. Shortly before the new year, the head of Belarus ignored the meeting of the Eurasian Economic Union supreme council in St. Petersburg, where the heads of the member states had to approve the new Customs Code of the Union. Previously, he had drawn into question the attitudes of Belarus to the integration projects with Russia:

"We will optimize our participation in these projects. I gave a corresponding order to the government and the presidential administration. We are currently analyzing our participation in Eurasian Economic Union," – Lukashenka said.

Has Lukashenka’s authority been put into question in Russia?

This conflict differs fundamentally from the previous ones, because Moscow doesn’t seem to consider the power of Lukashenka to be the only option to keep Belarus in the sphere of influence. Russian political analysts are convinced that this time the Kremlin is going to resist his demands to increase the subsidy assistance of the economic model, he has erected.

The debt for the Russian gas is already half a billion dollars

According to the agency Reuters, this year Russia is planning to supply oil to Belarus in the last year's reduced volumes – 18 million tons instead of 26, which Minsk is asking for. Meanwhile, the debt for the Russian gas has already reached half a billion dollars.

"It seems that Russia is not going to comply with the requests, it demands from Minsk to revive the agreed system, that means a strategic surrender. I believe that the conflict will continue within the next month or two, and Russia will cut oil supplies to the country. It will not be cut by 40%, it’ll be a 10% reduction. But it is also a shock to the Belarusian budget," – political analyst Andrei Suzdaltsev explains.

The oil and gas conflict between Russia and Belarus started in the first half of the last year. Minsk was indignant that Russian consumers were buying gas at subsidized prices, and required the same subsidies for Belarusian producers to enable them to compete in the Russian market. When Moscow did not agree, Belarus began to pay a fair, in its view, price unilaterally. Russia is demanding from Minsk to pay the agreed price.