The Economist: Lukashenka's Old Mantras Do Not Work

But he holds on to populism instead of holding reforms.

Lukashenka's promise of the "500-dollar-salary" meets its 10 years. Belarusians still not observe its money in their pockets. The average salary equals to $100-150 in the regions.

Financial analyst Uladzimir Tarasau points out that the government does not rush to fulfill instructions of the dictator. What do we observe? Is it the government crisis or an attempt of managers to save the economy from insane ideas? Economist Leu Marholin told Charter97.org about it:

- Lukashenka is engage in a clear populism. He will keep making empty statements and promises. The government, fortunately or not, is not entitled to do it. Officials have all arguments to state that no salary increase is possible without the work efficiency increase.

There are two ways to do it: to increase the volume of products produced and sold. However, it requires investments. The second variant is to cut the number of employees. The same production output can be ensured by less number of employees.

None of these options work in our country: abrupt dismissal of workers will cause a social upheaval, and there are no investments to take. They can be miserable, but the growth of GDP by 5-6% is not possible under current power.

- There is the task to reach GDP of $100 billion amid current $54 billion.

- It's the same lie as everything else. Lukashenka is tired of the mantra about wages and he's turned to another option. In our reality, let God us reach GDP figures we had in 2013. But we will fail even with $76 billion. Then we could stay afloat due to the support of Russia. We were remoras.

Now Russia is sanctioned and it has no chance to avoid them. It does not make sense to hold on to the Kremlin. But Lukashenka has no other variants. $100 billion are just a dream.

To make it possible, a great inflow of investments to the country must exist. But not occasional, like in the case with Turkey and the Arab Emirates which build some hotels and leave. There should be production in demand and markets. Investors who come and build enterprises are required. As soon as it becomes true, we can have $100, $150 and even $200 billion.

- Will investors come to the country with thousands of businessmen jailed and blocked independent sites?

- Of course, the image, reputation and real conditions for business are required. Only in this case some inflow of investments is possible. There must be the rule of law and the separation of powers in the country. The Parliament should have a monopoly on enactment of legislation, and the judicial system should be independent and impartial. All these conditions are vital to the availability of investments. An investor must be sure that if he fails with profit, he at least loses nothing in our country.