Lukashenka’s security appears very illusory.
Coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign Dzmitry Bandarenka said this to Charter97.org, commenting on the resignation of Ihar Shunevich from the post of head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus.
- What do you think this resignation means?
- This resignation is undoubtedly a continuation of the Utsiuryn case. The dictator is afraid of various conspiracies. Both he and his eldest son Viktar are doing everything to secure the “family” and its business interests. Therefore, there is a constant reshuffling of the security forces.
But the Utsiuryn case is not an ordinary fact. The information that appeared in the media indicated that this conspiracy took place.
We do not know what testimony Andrei Utsiuryn is giving in the KGB prison. Perhaps he told a lot of interesting things about Shunevich. Therefore, his resignation followed.
Lukashenka cannot publicly speak about the fact that there was a conspiracy: it would be a shock for the population. Therefore, it will be done gradually: people suspected of conspiracy will be moved away from power. Probably, Shunevich has a certain margin of damaging information about the Lukashenka family, so maybe he will survive.
However, more security officials will be dismissed as a follow-up, I made this prediction even when I commented on the arrest of the former head of Lukashenka’s security service Andrei Utsiuryn.
- Will Shunevich be arrested, like Utsiuryn, or, on the contrary, transferred to a new position - somewhere in the Security Council, for example?
- We have already heard Lukashenka’s statement: for him, the Security Council is not the main body. The main body is the Security Service.
Utsiuryn lost trust a long time ago, but they had to promote him to a position in the Security Council - and this was the first step towards arrest.
The Lukashenka system is not new, it is the Stalinist system. We know from history that, under Stalin, a person first was moved to another post, even promoted - and then they ended up in prison.
Whether Shunevich remains physically alive, and whether he stays free, will depend on how prepared he is for the moment: how much dirty laundry he has, where this compromising material is and whether it will be published if he is arrested.
The second important point: we must understand that the servants of Lukashenka are also employees of the Russian special services. This factor cannot be ignored either - as far as Russia is ready to “interfere” and come out to support a certain Belarusian security official, how important he is to Putin. Lukashenka cannot ignore this.
There is a kind of struggle of interests and influences, the price of which is the life and freedom of many security officials. This struggle is terrible and not public, people know little about it.
During my relatively short prison time after the Square-2010, I saw how many law-enforcers from various departments were actually arrested. And this information wasn’t in any media was. Now we do not know how many people really were arrested in the case of Utsiuryn.
- Just recently, it became known about the appointment of a new head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs by Lukashenka - this is a native of North Ossetia, Yury Karayeu. How would you comment on this appointment?
- Lukashenka absolutely cannot trust Belarusians. He is trying to rely on mercenaries, who, he believes, are personally committed to him. But these same people remain as devoted to Putin.
Therefore, it gives just a “delayed effect.” Lukashenka’s security appears very illusory. Putin will decide whether Lukashenka will live or not. Because he has enough agents in the Belarusian special services. He has enough ideologically devoted people who can execute an order from the Kremlin to physically eliminate or arrest the Belarusian satrap.