"Lukashenka, Like Urfin Jus, Lost the Battle and Was Taken Prisoner in Disgrace"

The dictator has run out of "magic powder" for his wooden soldiers.

"So, hang up. The grandiose rally "in support" of Aliaksandr Lukashenka will not be held next Sunday. But people were already recruited by region, special trains were being prepared for the capital, and the stages were built at two city points," political observer Aliaksandr Klaskouvski writes in his telegram channel.

"Now the authorities have a thousand explanations why all this is inappropriate. And just this abundance of named reasons (the prospect of a transport collapse, the coronavirus, the risk of provocations) causes mistrust. Did you just wake up and find an ax under the bench?

All these references to covid, collapse, and the threat of a terrorist attack seem like clumsy attempts to put a good face on a bad game.

First of all, there are many symptoms that the tried and tested voluntary-compulsory method of ensuring mass participation at public events began to fail. In recent days, the media have received many reports that people who were pulled to the rally "for Lukashenka" evade or refuse in plain text.

Although, the high authorities portray the situation exactly the opposite: they say, there were so many people willing that we grabbed our heads and did not want to arrange a Babylonian pandemonium, to paralyze transport links.

But after the Central Election Commission announced on August 9 that Lukashenka won 80% in the elections, the mistrust of the majority of Belarusians in the authorities is too great for many to believe in such an interpretation.

In the end, why bring everyone - you can only bring a part of those who are willing to come. Not to mention the fact that no one brings the participants of alternative marches together.

In fact, the background may be completely different. Seeing that too many people were being discouraged from the planned action, the bosses could estimate that there would be noticeably fewer people at the rally "for Lukashenka" than at the alternative march. And this is a failure and a shame.

Yes, the authorities still have the resource to mobilize a certain number of supporters. But to me, such pictures (especially when the pro-government march of military pensioners was taking place) remind me of a fairy tale about Urfin Jus and his wooden soldiers. If anyone has forgotten, let me remind you: in the end, the evil Urfin ran out of magic powder to revive his soldiers; he lost the battle in disgrace and was taken prisoner.

Our life, of course, is not a fairy tale, and it is not yet clear how and when the Belarusian political crisis will be resolved. But the cancellation of the official rally looks like another moral victory for the supporters of changes. The authorities get nervous, fuss, show their insecurity. This may indicate that Lukashenka's system is getting more and more disordered."