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Valer Karbalevich: Each New Step Aggravates Lukashenka’s Situation

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Valer Karbalevich: Each New Step Aggravates Lukashenka’s Situation
VALER KARBALEVICH

There is an impression of feverish twitching and convulsions.

In the past two weeks, both sides of the political conflict in Belarus have been playing something similar to a chess game. They make moves in response to the opponent's actions. For example, in response to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's presentation of the “people's ultimatum” to the Belarusian authorities by October 25, the latter announced a grandiose rally in support of Lukashenka on Sunday. A total mobilization was announced in all regions, political analyst Valer Karbalevich writes in his Telegram channel.

And suddenly on October 23, on Friday, the authorities gave the “all-clear” signal. No movies tonight.

The explanations of the reasons for the refusal to hold the rally look clearly awkward. No reference to coronavirus or security concerns should be taken seriously. As if when planning the rally, the authorities did not know anything about the danger of the pandemic.

Obviously, the main reason is that the authorities realized the limitations of their mobilization capabilities. They apparently came to the conclusion that the likely number of participants in the pro-government rally will be less than at an alternative rally by Lukashenka's opponents. And this could have a negative effect.

Forced mobilization of people under threat of dismissal caused conflicts in some work collectives. Many workers refused to participate in the event. That is, the rally could become an additional factor of dissatisfaction with the regime.

In addition, opponents of Lukashenka could have penetrated this column. Calls for this were made on social networks. And together with the forcibly mobilized people, they could ruin the whole game. Something similar happened in Romania in 1989. The then dictator Nicolae Ceausescu gathered a rally in his support. But soon the protesters began shouting anti-government slogans, and Ceausescu had to flee.

Considering that a pro-government rally would be held under the police protection, it would not be very nice to disperse, beat, and detain participants in an alternative protest rally. This would tie the hands of the riot police.

In any case, the first attempt to organize a mega-rally, and then to cancel it indicate the demoralized state of the regime. It turned out to be a big embarrassment. This fussiness has become another crossbow of the authorities. By canceling the rally, Lukashenka actually admitted that his electorate is very small, and they are in no hurry to defend their leader. And the society saw it. The result was a sort of a political exhibitionism, i.e. voluntary self-exposure.

In recent days, the Belarusian political crisis has acquired a geopolitical aspect. A very significant event was the visit to Minsk of the Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin. There can hardly be any doubt that he came with a message from Putin.

The Kremlin is unhappy with Lukashenka's behavior. Because he is not fulfilling his promises to Putin in Sochi. This can be judged by the reaction of Russian TV channels. On October 18, Irada Zeynalova, host of the “Results of the Week” program on NTV, called on Aliaksandr Lukashenka to keep his promises if he wants to receive the next tranche of the loan.

Russia is unhappy with the fact that Belarus does not fully pay debts for gas. Minsk does not fulfill its promise to reorient the transit of Belarusian export cargo from the Baltic ports to the Russian ports.

According to Zeynalova, Lukashenka does not fulfill his promise “to hold a referendum on the Constitution, after which elections are to be held ... For Russia, the result of how Lukashenka can reach an agreement with his people and how Belarusians themselves believe his assurances is more important.”

Russian officials do not hide the fact that in Sochi the rulers of Belarus and Russia have agreed on the transit of power. Lukashenka must leave within a year and a half. He pledged to announce the date for a referendum on the Constitution, early presidential elections. And all this in the mode of the dialogue with society.

But so far none of this is happening. Belarusian state media broadcast a lot about the new Constitution, but they say nothing about early presidential elections. Lukashenka stubbornly avoids this issue, hoping to sit out until the end of his five-year term. He understands very well that if he publicly announces his imminent departure, then his regime will begin to crumble, it will be possible to celebrate a memorial service for him. The nomenclature will gradually distance itself from him, trying to fit into the new post-Lukashenka configuration of power. And the riot policemen will wonder why they should push their horns for the sake of the departing ruler. Therefore, Lukashenka does not even say anything about the schedule of the constitutional reform.

And Moscow seeks to suppress the willfulness of its ally. Naryshkin brought to Minsk another warning from Putin that Lukashenka is playing a dangerous game.

In response, Lukashenka made a knight's move. On October 24, he had a telephone conversation with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

I want to remind you that not so long ago Lukashenka refused to talk with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. And now he has agreed to talk with the head of the foreign ministry of the state, which, according to the official Belarusian version, is the main organizer of the “color revolution” in Belarus. And this despite the fact that the United States does not recognize Lukashenka as legitimate.

The US State Department explained Pompeo's call by the fact that the Secretary of State called for an end to criminal prosecution and the release of the illegally detained US citizen Vital Shklyarau from Belarus.

Obviously, this conversation took place against Moscow and was a response to the Russian pressure. The response to Russia's tough demands was the search for room for maneuver in the west.

Having got into the political millstones, Lukashenka twists, turns, maneuvers, trying to retain power at any cost. But so far he has not been very successful. The actions of the authorities have become inconsistent, and this is clearly visible from the outside. One gets the impression of a feverish pulling various levers of the power machine. But each new step only aggravates Lukashenka's position. The visit to the KGB detention center and the meeting with political prisoners was assessed as a demonstration of weakness, and only exacerbated the confrontation in the society. First, a mega-rally in support of the regime was announced, and then canceled, which made a very unfavorable impression among the politicized public.

ONT TV channel reported that Lukashenka informed Pompeo “about the national dialogue that is now actively being conducted in Belarus”. Laughter in the audience. The main participant in this “dialogue”" is the riot police. Or perhaps the clumsy interviews of Yury Vaskrasenski are presented as a dialogue.

Another protest march took place in Minsk on October 25. According to observers, this turned out to be the most massive action by opponents of the regime over the past month. Notably more than 200 thousand people took to the streets. To some extent, Tsikhanouskaya's ultimatum played the mobilizing role. The authorities responded traditionally. At the end of the march, when the people were already about to disperse, the riot police began to throw stun grenades into the very midst of the people and shoot rubber bullets. There were wounded.

On Monday, the day of the declared strike, the authorities brought Interior Ministry officers into large state-owned enterprises and began to detain workers. Unrest began at enterprises and universities. Some shops stopped. Many private companies, primarily in the service sector, are closed on October 26. In other words, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's call for a general political strike was a signal for a new round of protests.

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