He literally hangs in the balance.
Street protests remain the glorious and most spectacular page of the Belarusian revolution. Moreover, there is no doubt that while Lukashenka is sitting in the center of Minsk in the Palace of Independence, the marches of hundreds of thousands of citizens of the republic will definitely return, Russian political scientist Andrei Suzdaltsev writes on the website politoboz.com:
"For three months, street protests have been successfully shaking and destroying the foundations of Belarusian authoritarianism, demonstrating to the whole world the cruelty and cowardice of Lukashenka, his hatred of his own people and the illegitimacy of his sixth presidential term. The street protests caused the international isolation of the ruling regime in Belarus and raised the question of the effectiveness of the two-decade-old policy of building a "Union state" with Lukashenka.
On the one hand, the protests demonstrated the existence of a huge civilizational split in the Belarusian society, and on the other hand, revealed the fascist essence of the state system created in Belarus. The marches made it possible to talk about the Belarusian revolution's national character, and the insatiable bloody terror of the authorities closed the prospects for any dialogue with Lukashenka.
Minsk became the basis of the protests; for the first time in the history of this long-suffering city, the names of its streets and squares are now well known by millions of people around the world.
It was in Minsk that the main and most massive detachment of the Belarusian revolution was formed, that actually, speaking in military terms, is a dozen divisions of the militia or Resistance. The Belarusian capital remains the main front in the fight against the fascist junta of the security forces headed by Lukashenka. The author of these lines once wrote that the new government in Belarus is being forged in the Frunzensky district of Minsk (the district with a greater population than Homel), as well as in Viasnianka and Uruchcha.
Over the past months, protests have become usual and have become part of the Belarusian people's traditions. They have become a school of national solidarity, and a considerable part of the population attended them to feel that they are a majority, to feel the joy of unity and support. The author of these lines was deeply impressed by an elderly man who saw the dispersal of the column through the window and jumped out of the apartment in slippers to open his entrance for people fleeing from the punishers (Kamennaya Horka, November 22, 2020). There are a lot of cases of this kind of solidarity.
Minsk gives birth to a new government
District networks / cells / groupss of resistance to the ruling regime are the only real threat to the existing government. In fact, they are the larvae of the new government, which will come not from the rural areas of the Belarusian regions (Vitsebsk, Brest, Mahileu, etc.), but from the urban outskirts of the only Belarusian metropolis, according to the political formula: "Minsk gives birth to power."
But it's not certain that this can happen. Minsk gave birth to its knightly order of heroes who, every week, regardless of the terror of punishers and the weather, stubbornly demonstrates that the protest has not died and the regime is doomed.
There are already new leaders. They are present in chats, they are undercover, and the Belarusian special services are actively looking for them. The arrival of punitive forces in the districts, housing complexes, and literally in the yards where families, old people, wives, and children live set the task for the resistance to fight back at all costs. There is nowhere to retreat.
We can say that despite a lot of problems, costs of conspiracy theories, fear, and apathy, a very difficult and complex process of forming a new Belarusian government on a completely national basis is going on in the Minsk regions. This is how a nation is born.
No reason to be discouraged
The worst sin is despair. To fall into despair means not only to commit spiritual suicide but also to betray your loved ones, relatives, comrades, everything that is dear, including the Motherland. It means leaving your children to be torn apart by the assassins from the "Eismant's Safari."
It should be reminded that the Belarusian people were incredibly "lucky": in their history, they faced a mobilized and ruthless enemy who has nowhere to retreat. For the sake of keeping power in his hands, Lukashenka, without hesitation, will drench the whole country with blood. The Belarusians need a victory over such an enemy because, by 90%, it will be a victory over themselves, over their fear, over the desire to evade the fight, hide behind someone, and justify their passivity with something.
The Belarusian political crisis continues to develop. In four months, Belarus has changed radically. The republic has turned from an oasis of authoritarianism and notorious "stability" into a fire-breathing volcano of political protests. Lukashenka's power has weakened to a critical level; it literally hangs on the bayonets of the security forces and the support of Moscow. At the same time, it is clear that the "siloviki" are not eternal, and they again rely on Moscow. What's next?
The author of these lines initially rejected the "constitutional reform" as a way out of the political crisis. Lukashenka is incapable of reform. Three scenarios remain.
In the first scenario, Moscow leaves Lukashenka face to face with the Belarusian people. In this case, the security forces, realizing that Lukashenka has a vacuum of support, immediately leave the streets of the Belarusian capital. The regime's outcome is clear.
As the second option, a real and even advertised communication with the Belarusian Resistance's newly formed center appears (it is clear that this is not Tsikhanouskaya). In this case, the Belarusian security officials' actions will be identical to the first scenario, and the consequences for the ruling regime are dire.
There is a third scenario: for the first time in its thousand-year history, Minsk takes power in Belarus. But then we will wake up in the morning and see another country.