5 March 2021, Friday, 13:30
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Expert: No Less Than 20K People Died Of Coronavirus In Belarus

Expert: No Less Than 20K People Died Of Coronavirus In Belarus

The government agencies have classified all statistics.

Director of the EAST analytical center Andrei Yeliseyeu wrote on Facebook about how the death toll from coronavirus in Belarus in 2020 can be calculated.

Actually, the expert has already counted and stated that the death rate in the country over the past year was at least 20 thousand people:

“Government agencies have classified all statistics on mortality and population size and are hesitant to report the horrifying number of deaths from coronavirus due to “the world's most successful approach”. Let's use three methods to estimate the real mortality from the coronavirus.

Analysis of the mortality of medical workers. Since the overall mortality rate is many times underestimated, and the death of medical workers is not easy to hide, Belarus has an abnormally high proportion of deaths among doctors.

According to official statistics, as of January 1, 2021, 1,424 people died of the coronavirus in Belarus. Doctor of Medical Sciences Sviatlana Sarokina collected (the Ministry of Health conceals such statistics) the list of the names of health workers who died during the epidemics - 103 people at the beginning of the year, and it was clearly incomplete - there are many additions in comments from caring people (already 143). It follows that doctors allegedly accounted for up to 8-10% (and more, depending on the completeness of the list) of the dead. In many countries this figure is usually less than 1%.

For example, according to the Ministry of Health of Poland, 137 health workers died of the coronavirus last year. In total, more than 28 thousand people died of coronavirus, according to Polish statistics, in 2020. Even if we take into account the worst situation with PPE in Belarus, the mortality rate of doctors cannot exceed the Polish figure by 15-20 times. Comparison of the number of deaths of doctors in Belarus and Poland suggests that the total number of deaths from coronavirus is unlikely to be very much inferior to the general Polish indicator, that is, it probably exceeds 20 thousand.

Based on the approximate scale of underestimation of mortality (the method is rude, but justified). In April-June, through the UN, the real excess mortality became known, which probably amounted to about 6,700 people. At the same time, 392 people officially died from the coronavirus at the end of June. That is, the statistics were underestimated by about 17 times. Let us assume that the scale of underestimation of mortality continued in the second half of the year.

Although the epidemic began to decline in the 3rd quarter, its consequences in the 4th quarter were clearly the most serious. The mismanagers even set a new bar. If in the first wave the number of new daily cases was not higher than 1,000, then in the second wave the bar was raised to 2,000 (in reality it could have been 10 thousand or more). The maximum allowable number of drawn daily deaths was raised from 7 people in the first wave to 10 in the second. So, we multiply the official number of deaths by January 1 (1.424) by 17, which gives a figure in the region of 24 thousand.

Extrapolation of mortality data from Mahiliou. As it surfaced due to an oversight of local executive committee members, the mortality rate in January-November 2020 there exceeded the average for the entire (!) 2019 by 16%. Taking into account December (≈4700 / 3766), excess mortality in the city for the whole year probably exceeded the “normal” indicator by 25% or more.

Let's say Mahiliou suffered from the epidemic to the same extent as the whole country on average (the Ministry of Health conceals regional data). We extrapolate the excess mortality (min. + 25%) in Mahiliou taking into account the countrywide mortality rate in 2019 (121 thousand people). This gives a figure of about 151 thousand people, that is, the difference is 30 thousand people.

In total, each of the three assessment methods indicates that the real number of deaths from coronavirus in Belarus last year was probably at least 20 thousand people, and possibly much more.”