The opinion of a financial advisor.
To what extent has the pressure of certain external factors on the foreign exchange market changed in recent days? And, after re-evaluating these factors, what exchange rates can be expected? Financial consultant Mikhail Hrachou expressed his vision with regard to this in a comment for Myfin.by.
What will happen to the dollar and euro in the coming months? - opinion
About the currency pair
- Our forecast, which we talked about a few months ago, is now being implemented in the world currency market. The US dollar is gradually losing ground against major currencies and assets. In particular, the dollar index at the end of last week and at the beginning of this week dropped below the psychological mark of 91 points. At morning trading on April 20 in the world market, the EUR / USD pair reached 1.2080. With a high degree of probability, there will be attempts to rebounce. According to the classics of the foreign exchange market, after reaching the maximums, profit is taken, and at this moment the price is corrected downward. But after stabilization in the area of 1.20, the euro / dollar pair opens the prospect for further growth to 1.23-1.25. And in a deeper perspective, in the second half of the year or by the end of the year, I admit that the euro / dollar pair will reach 1.30 and even 1.35.
The foreign economic background also contributes to this. The world economy is growing. The IMF, OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and the World Bank are revising their forecasts upward. The best forecast for today is given for India - about 12.5% annual growth. 8.6% is expected from China, about 6.5-7% from the economies of Europe and the United States. The growth of the stock market in the world, strengthening of the currencies of developing countries and, as an opposite trend, a decline in the dollar is expected.
Fluctuations in foreign currencies
This all gradually comes to our market. If in early April local maximums were recorded, in particular, the dollar rate rose to 2.6676 Belarusian rubles, the euro - to 3.1684, then by now there has been a noticeable decline. At the auction on April 20, the dollar was fixed at the level of 2.5864 Belarusian rubles, the euro - at the level of 3.1186.
Since the beginning of the year, the currency basket has fallen in price by almost one and a half percent. Since the beginning of 2021, the dollar has grown by only 0.29%, while the euro has decreased by 1.56%, but this decline was “laid down” mainly in January-February. Now the euro is winning back its positions in foreign markets. And in our domestic market, a slight increase in the euro is also possible.
The Russian ruble has its own corridor
The Russian ruble is still marking time in the range between 3.40 and 3.45 Belarusian rubles per 100 Russian rubles. The foreign policy background gives the Russian ruble high volatility, including the aggravation of the situation around Ukraine and Donbas, a call from US President Biden to Russian President Putin, the imposition of US sanctions and the subsequent realization by the market that the sanctions are quite mild. These factors have been driving the Russian ruble up and down within a fairly narrow corridor over the past two weeks.
What's in the end?
As the “pressure” of these external factors eases, the Russian ruble is likely to stop at around 3 Belarusian rubles 45 kapeikas. This will be the best correlation for balancing the interests of exporters and importers in the domestic market.
As for the dollar and the euro, in the near future the dollar, with a high degree of probability, will be in the region of BYN 2,60, plus or minus 1-2 kapeikas. However, the euro can strengthen in our market up to BYN 3, plus 13-14 kapeikas.