"Authorities Put Out Fire With Petrol": What's In Store For Belarusian Business After July 9?

The level of indignation of Belarusians can only rise.

On July 9, Belarusian traders will be forbidden to pay with cash when buying goods abroad. The experts have already called it a catastrophe for small business. The Charter97.org website has spoken with ex-businessman, European Belarus activist from Slonim Viktar Marchyk about the possible impact of this decision on the Belarusian business:

- I completely agree with the experts, because I've already talked to entrepreneurs not only from Slonim, but also from other cities. They are all in shock, they don't know what to do. A lot of them say that after July 9, they will sell off their goods, and they won't be able to work under the scheme offered by the government.

They have to survive somehow, so it is quite predictable that they will have to resort to gray schemes. It turns out that the government wanted to avoid gray schemes, but is pushing entrepreneurs into them, which means lost taxes, and the country is already missing out on taxes.

The authorities are creating a problem for themselves, but there is still time; "Perspective" is already working in this direction. We really hope that there are sensible people out there who understand the absurdity of this decision and how unprofitable it is for the authorities and for entrepreneurs. It must be cancelled, otherwise entrepreneurs will simply close down, and that is a large number of businesses which will cause unemployment, plus, heat people up for you-know-what. The authorities seem to be putting out the fire with petrol.

- It has been proven more than once that the government's "campaigns" against the business community are a desire to make soup out of the chicken that lays the golden eggs. How adequate are such actions of the Belarusian authorities?

- Any sane person must understand that they are quarrelling with their bread and butter, because it will cause the underpayment of a large amount of taxes. There is an opinion that these decisions and laws are made by the officials who have an illegal business.

- That is, they want to line their own pockets?

- In principle, yes, because it will force small and medium-sized businesses to close. Perhaps they have this idea that they must remove competitors, it turns out they do not think about the Belarusian budget, they think about their personal pockets.

- How will the elimination of small business affect the average Belarusian? Should we expect the prices of consumer goods to rise and their assortment to shrink?

- Naturally, if there is no competition and there is the monopoly on some goods, then either the manufacturer or the one who sells these products will put up the prices that are favorable to them. The prices will be higher than they are now, because competition automatically brings prices down. Everyone wants to sell his or her goods, and without competition, the prices will go up. All of this will affect common citizens who are now surviving because of their low salaries and pensions. All this can only raise the level of indignation among common Belarusians.

- Belarusians have already withdrawn 44% of foreign currency deposits from banks. How strong is this blow to the country's finances and what can such a trend lead to?

- Such a trend could lead to the collapse of the banking system. We all understand that the money which allegedly remains on the accounts - it doesn't exist. Approximately 9-10% of the reserves are kept for consumers in these banks, and the rest of it goes to no one knows where. If people start withdrawing their deposits in full, only the first 10% will get their money back, and the rest will be left with nothing.

- How dangerous is it to keep your savings in banks today? What can the regime do with the money of the Belarusians?

- I personally do not keep my savings in banks, because I remember very well the late 80s and early 90s, when we were keeping money in the savings banks, savings accounts, and then the money was gone. I will give you one personal example: at the time my father had 10,000 Soviet rubles in the bank, we could have bought almost two cars. Literally in a short period of time he could only buy a bottle of vodka for those 10,000 rubles. Is there any point in keeping money there?

The most reliable bank, as they say, is a glass bank, that is, a three-liter glass jar. Now the economic situation in the country is so explosive, you can lose everything. Even if you keep your savings in Belarusian rubles, the dollar may rise, like in 2011, and a person may lose a lot. Keeping it in the currency is also unpredictable, because it is unclear whether the person will get the currency back. You cannot trust our officials today, because they may start giving back hard currency in Belarusian rubles, and not even at the market rate, but at the rate set by the National Bank. We've already seen such a situation in 2011, when the rate of the National Bank was Br3,500 and the dollar was sold for Br8,500-9,000 on the "black market". A lot of people went bankrupt then, so I do not advise anyone to keep their savings in banks.

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