Vladimir Milov: What Is Happening in Belarus Makes Putin Freak Out

Companion of Navalny about the revolution in the post-Soviet space.

One of the leaders of the Russian opposition, associate of the head of the Anti-Corruption Foundation and political prisoner Alexei Navalny, former Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Milov, became a guest of the Charter97.org Studio X97 program. The host is Yauhen Klimakin.

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- Vladimir, I would like to talk to you first as an economist and then as an oppositionist.

- Okay.

- What is happening with the economy of Belarus now?

- Nothing good. This is no money. What is the economy of Belarus? In fact, this is such an unprofitable collective farm, which is mainly supported only by income from several very liquid export enterprises: Belaruskali, Naftan. You all know them. And this, of course, is not enough, that is, ⅔ of enterprises are either low profitable or unprofitable. Everything that is controlled by the state requires huge subsidies and there are no sources of growth, that is, external investment is at zero, especially after the political crisis, no one will come at all, there is only an outflow - an outflow of people, outflow of deposits, and all that jazz. There was hope that Russia would save them. Russia does not want to save them yet.

- We will definitely talk about this in detail. And if we talk about the economy on a 10-point system where 10 is a wonderful, developing economy?

- At best, it can stretch for a three.

- Three?

- Yes. Bad situation. Very bad.

- I remembered Lec: "We thought we had reached the bottom, but someone knocked from below."

- It's not really the bottom. I see many comments from Belarusian analysts. In general, they are correct in saying that they should not predict some kind of immediate collapse. It may not be an immediate collapse, but this is a mode of such survival in a very fat-free format, let's say.

- And what to expect? Inflation?

- Certainly. The ruble will continue to devalue with 100% certainty. By the way, it will devalue after our ruble. Because our situation is also bad, Russia's economic prospects are poor, there will be new sanctions, there will be rate jumps. Yours will too because your economy is very dependent on ours. Among other things, once again: without investment, the whole thing cannot be cured. Who will go to Belarus now? Who will give credit for it? In principle, the only hope now for the Lukashenka regime is that Putin will give money. Why does he fly to him? Because there are no other sources, more money will not come from anywhere.

- Do you think the number of state employees will be reduced in order to save money?

- I don’t think they will directly reduce the number of people. They will most likely save on payments. That is, you have to tighten your belts. "Dad will not drink less, the children will just eat less."

- The ruble will be cheaper and cheaper...

- Look. People ask: "What will be the course?" The mechanics, I think, will be about the same as for the Russian ruble, some periods of rebounds and calming are possible, but then new shocks will come, and, if you look at the long-term trend, it will remain so, that is, the ruble, of course, will devalue in the future.

- Our people chronically distrust the national currency. There is such a habit: you earned a little more - quickly change for dollars, quickly change for euros in exchange offices. Is this correct behavior in this situation, what do you think?

- It is hard to say. It shakes everyone. This ratio in a pair of currencies can be different. Some bad data came, below expectations for the American economy - the dollar dipped slightly. Good data came, Biden's package is working - the dollar has strengthened. It is difficult to predict here, but, in principle, I would say that these are equivalent things in terms of reliability: the dollar and the euro, and they certainly are not similar to the Belarusian ruble.

- In general, if Vladimir Milov, in the case of Belarusian citizenship, had 10 Belarusian rubles, would he exchange them for dollars or euros?

- We have a similar situation. That is, in Russia, the currency depreciates throughout its life. It's just a habit. Therefore, I just got used to spending, and if some temporary, random, extra money is formed, then of course yes, it is better to keep it in foreign currency.

- The money that Lukashenka has now, after a stage of such obvious illegitimacy, has received in the Kremlin and is receiving. Could it be that, when Belarus becomes free, there is no regime, why should the Belarusian people pay the illegitimate president's bills?

- There will be such a question. And it came up in Ukraine, and Ukraine categorically refuses to return...

- … the loans of Yanukovych.

- In general, by the way, Yanukovych's loan was prohibited by the rules. That is, there were very clear rules that you can not give money to such defaulted countries. But Medvedev specially signed the amendment and immediately wrote him 3 billion in a minute. The situation here, of course, is very simple, that all this goes not to the economy, not to the people, but all this goes to the dictator. Therefore, such a formulation of the question, yes, I think it will be.

- As a Russian taxpayer, you probably think. How much money has already been poured into Lukashenka?

- It was estimated that in a variety of ways: both direct assistance and direct subsidies - more than $ 100 billion. In principle, I kind of agree with this assessment. Moreover, now Russia is the main market, that is, half of the Belarusian exports go to us. In principle, I am not at all sure that, if we did not buy this within the framework of the somewhat artificial Eurasian Union created by Putin, it would be difficult for Belarus to find a way out for its products, because Lukashenka is not familiar with the concept of competitiveness. The international market is a tough competitive environment. As for the Russian taxpayer, I will tell you this: I am not at all opposed to helping a friendly people. But, of course, I would like to help a free country that converts our assistance into development.

- The people, not the regime.

- Absolutely. For me, the main problem is not that this money goes to Belarus, but that Belarus has been seized by a dictator who takes it all for himself. That's the whole story. And you know, I talk a lot with sociologists about our internal political situation, but not only. Maybe it will be an interesting moment, many say that Putin will join Belarus in order to raise his rating. You know, there is a very interesting phenomenon that sociologists tell me, who discuss this issue in detail in focus groups throughout Russia by region. So the verdict is unambiguous - the Russians perceive the accession of Belarus as a burden and not as an asset.

- They reunited with Crimea and felt the effects.

- There is a kind of magical aura with Crimea. That this is some kind of magical peninsula with dolphins and mermaids, but they think about Belarus as potatoes, Belavezhskaya Pushcha, and a lot of money. Indeed, and there are reasons for this, people perceive the joining of Belarus as another portal to hell, which will require a lot of money. That is, geopolitically, this has more disadvantages than advantages. In public opinion, the picture is like this.

- You said "potato" and other associations. Why is the associative range of Russians so meager? If we are talking about Belarusians, even if we are talking about what happened before, before the revolution, when there were also some stereotypes about some kind of business executive, about the fact that it was clean on the streets, which really drove Belarusians to madness.

- Not. He's not meager at all. We have a very good attitude towards Belarusians, a lot of them come, for example, to work. That is, Belarusians generally have a very good reputation, as people of high culture, correct, professional, disciplined people. By the way, to the questions about the competitive advantages of the nation. For Russians, this is such a landmark. There are a lot of good things to say about Belarus. But the question here is this: Putin wants to join something at great cost. Join for what? For the territory? We have a lot of it - look at the map.

- How many million square kilometers are there? 17?

- 17 plus. Therefore, do not take this as a mockery about potatoes, people just say that there is no reason. For Crimea, let's say, they are some conditional reasons, it has some kind of strategic importance. Russia is a cold country, it does not have many warm places where you can swim in the sea. Many things. In general, it has such a historical, cultural aura, and that's it. And, in Belarus, no factor would require joining something there. There is simply no reason for this.

- How will the regime patch up the holes? What attempts can it make?

- There are no special mechanisms other than external assistance. External assistance can, in principle, come only from Russia. There is also China, which is the second-largest creditor to Belarus. That is, China is the holder of a third of the Belarusian debt. But China has such a specificity, Putin also ran into this, he hoped that China would replace all the lost Western loans for him. It was clear to me but not to Putin: it turned out that China is not an international creditor, it lends only for some of its needs - to support Chinese exporters, roughly speaking. He doesn't give out money just like that.

Since Belarus is now really in the international financial blockade due to all this political crisis, China will not engage in charity work, and the only hope is, in general, to beg for something from Putin. Putin could give it, that is, physically, Russia has the ability to lend to Belarus now. Give $ 5 billion, for example. This can be done easily. But I think that you have already seen this over the last, let's say, year.

- If my memory serves me right, he begged 500 million.

- 1.5 billion.

- Already 1.5 billion?

- It's like those 1.5 billion that are...

- … 500 million each.

- Yes. In September. Moreover, only one billion of them is Russian money, and 500 is the Eurasian Fund for Stability and something there. Purely Russian is only a billion. They could have given much more, we can talk about this, because Putin, of course, wants the keys from him, but he does not give them.

- From Belarus?

- Yes.

- What is the relationship between the two dictators, Putin and Lukashenka, now?

- Bad. There is one "but" - Putin and Lukashenka have a strong common enemy, which they both mortally fear: this is the prospect of a change of power as a result of a popular revolution from below. When such a threat arises, Putin can be friends even with a bald devil. They got along well with the bald devil, but this is the only thing that unites them at the moment. But as far as I can see and according to my sources, there is a real abyss.

- There is no atmosphere of trust there.

- No. There is a war. This was clear some time ago because the Russian nomenklatura is not only Putin, but among all of our aces in general, the prevailing sentiment is that "we have already thrown so much into him - let him give it back." The question is exactly that. And he does not want to give back, he wants to maneuver in order to sign some kind of road map there but stay in power. But these people see everything, they also got some stones. And it creates a heavy atmosphere that no skiing or eating lingonberries can beat. Therefore, their relations are difficult, but they are disciplined by the presence of a very dangerous common enemy, that is, the threat to the dictatorship from popular discontent from below. And, in the face of this, they are performing some kind of dance together.

- Who learns from whom? Lukashenka from Putin or Putin from Lukashenka?

- This is a mutual process. I think it shouldn't be oversimplified. You know, dictators in the world now form such, as they say in business, "best practices," such a guide, a dictator's pocket manual: how to imprison for extremism, how to torture, how to intimidate, how to do propaganda. Rather, it is such a global process. They all end up learning a lot from China. For example, a total video surveillance system. They wouldn't have figured it out themselves, they are the people who read YouTube printouts. But, to generalize, then, probably, all the same, Putin is behind. At first, some things appear en masse, probably, in your country, and then we already see it here. Probably, the campaign of mass intimidation and repression that we have seen now in Russia is obviously a consequence of the fact that Putin, Patrushev, and this whole clique believe that the way Lukashenka suppressed the type of protests was successful. He crushed, it's sort of quiet - that means that we need to do this.

I remember Ilya Yashin telling me how he was first arrested in Belarus in 2005. And then we in Russia in 2005, 2006, in 2007 listened to this as to some report from another planet, about the lawlessness used against the people, like, a lot of evidence vs one false report of a policeman. How can you put people to jail like that? And then it became the same in our country. In terms of the level of impudent legal and power lawlessness, of course, Lukashenka is ahead, and ours are just copycats.

- It has always been the case that Lukashenka tried to play this European integration card in every possible way during negotiations with Putin. Now the situation since last year is such that those who were blind in the European Union have received their eyesight, and the crooks who were ready to kiss for money with bloody dictators are already useless.

- It's all true. And this factor for maneuver was gone, but another appeared. Two. First: Lukashenka understands perfectly well that for Putin the victory of the democratic revolution in Belarus is a catastrophic scenario, he cannot allow this, he just cannot. It's not even an Arab spring. Ukraine is probably comparable. But Belarus, from the point of view of the most diverse social, economic and cultural ties, is the closest of all, and if people come out there like this, then next time it will be where? You can try to guess three times.

Factor number two: Lukashenka is cunning, he understands very well that Putin has a limit on how much he can threaten him. He cannot threaten him with intervention, for example. You saw that very specific anti-Putin slogans began to appear at the Belarusian protests in response to Putin's support for the dictator. And Lukashenka understands perfectly well that if Russia wants to enter by occupation, the population will not like it very much. Putin is not used to and does not know how to occupy when the local population is against it. He does this when there is some kind of support. And even more so, he has such a difficult period at home. To get involved in such an adventure? Lukashenka understands both of these things and therefore behaves this way. If the situation was a little simpler, Putin would have crushed him. And so, even if he lost this European integration card, but he keeps on due to these two factors.

- In 2002, 19 years ago, you were the Deputy Minister of Energy. I think you are very well familiar with the activities of Rosatom. What do you think about the nuclear power plant in Astravets?

- I have been regulating Rosatom for 6 years, that is, before that I worked in the Federal Energy Commission, which set tariffs for them. I know all their insides. They make a television picture, that everything is cool.

- And in reality?

- When they come to the government to ask for money, they reveal the real situation, but they plead not to tell anyone. Look, firstly, one of the key problems with the Astravets NPP is opacity, and we see that there are a lot of dangerous incidents during the construction of new nuclear power plants. Not many of them are being built, but something is happening there all the time. For example, if you google the Akkuyu incident in Turkey earlier this year. There were some explosions. They say that it was a planned detonation on the site, and they did not explain why. But the planned detonation was such that the windows of dozens of households flew out in the district. They do not talk about this, they say that everything is fine.

For example, there was a story 10 years ago during the construction of the Leningrad NPP-2, when a concrete wall with the metal structures of the reactor block actually collapsed. There was no reactor there yet, but it was simply erected. Can you imagine it would have collapsed when it was already there and working. All this speaks about the quality of Rosatom's work. What can I say here? When the Astravets NPP was being built, the reactor was dropped. And they not only dropped it, but they also said: “Ah, no big deal. Let's launch this one anyway.” Can you imagine? And even Belarusians insisted that they should replace it. Despite all the pressure from the Russian side, Belarusians had to insist that the dropped reactor is not very good, let's change it.

- This is only what comes to the surface.

- Only when some real trash happens. Can you imagine what is happening inside?

- If we are talking about what happened before: persecution, repression, assassinations of opponents, independent journalists, then since last year, I think, we can call it by its proper name: a man declared war on the people.

- Yes indeed.

- In the war there are losers, there are winners. How do you assess the situation?

- This war has just begun. And now we just have a stage of active hostilities. I have no doubt that Lukashenka will lose. To begin with, it is simply impossible to maintain such a power tension for a very long time. This is a huge stress. This is a strain on resources. Still, both resources and human personnel are limited. They cannot do all these cruel things 24/7. Everything they do is overtime in one way or another. This cannot last forever, and it is clear that the people of Belarus are much more than this pack of dogs engaged in this lawlessness. But he gave the command and they turned on maximum brutality. So far, there is an opportunity to continue it. So, unfortunately, it all turned into a very dramatic and painful phase. We will observe this for some time. But I do not see any opportunities, in the conditions of such a crisis of legitimacy, to win this war for Lukashenka.

- Does this also apply to Russia?

- Sure. Because this is what you see now, for the first time there are such massive repressions, when the police come home to dozens of thousands of people, when more than 12 thousand people have been detained at the January and February protests. We have never had this. And they follow the example of Lukashenka. That is, Putin considers this suppression of protests to be successful, this fits his picture of the world. Those who are sitting around him see that public support is now at a minimum, that there are risks, if not to lose power, then at least seriously undermine their dominance and hence such answer. They follow the example.

- We recorded an interview with Viktor Shenderovich. I asked him: “Do you think you will see Russia free in your life?” Shenderovich answered: “No, I hope to catch the beginning of some sort of way out”. What are your expectations?

- Of course. Because I can see what's going on below. That is, my activity in the past many years has been associated with the fact that I have traveled a lot in Russia and communicate a lot with people, I run a Navalny LIVE channel that is very massive in terms of coverage, I have a huge feedback and I see that with such energy, Putin may try to resist, but in the long term it is difficult for him to do something. And I've seen a lot of situations in my life when everyone predicts such a business as usual, like everything is to remain as it used to be. And few people look at the trends that lead to breaking down. I see these trends.

I saw a lot of this happening, for example, when the communist system in the USSR and Eastern Europe collapsed, there were many who insisted everything would remain unchanged, the Soviet Union forever and so on.

- The Americans did not expect this either.

- Bush Sr. spoke on August 1, 1991 in Kyiv. His famous “chicken Kiev speech”, where he said that “the Soviet Union, Mr. Gorbachev, must be supported”. And two weeks later it all collapsed. Therefore, I do not want you to seem a too rosy optimist, the transition to freedom will be very painful for both Russia and Belarus. We must be aware of this. There is no other option. That is, there are no other trends for these dictatorships to become successful systems that set an example for everyone. They can barely keep themselves by balancing with some available resources, and they keep the situation from mass protests only by very, very brutal suppression, quite exclusively brutal.

- How did the fall in oil prices affect the situation?

- It was so relatively temporary. That is, now the prices are back. By the way, this is what Lukashenka supports, that prices have returned conditionally to $ 70. This cash flow from oil exports, of course, feeds the whole situation. Both Putin and Lukashenka felt a little easier, but on the other hand, this does not cancel any fundamental problems. I think that in the near future, there is no need to expect any sharp dash in oil. But still, even $ 70 is not enough to solve the problems of these regimes. And still a little more money, but not enough to qualitatively improve the situation for Lukashenka.

- How can the people economically put pressure on the regime?

- I do not think that this is a question of the behavior of the people. The people are solving their political problem. The people just want a different course, a different system of power, a different system of government. And the very fact that Belarusians loudly announced this already has enormous economic consequences.

Everything is outflowing from Belarus. Here are the concrete economic consequences of the revolution. I know all these stories, they also write to me: “let's take the money from the banks”. And there was an outflow of money from banks. You know, firstly, such flash mobs are extremely difficult to organize, because someone will take it away, and someone, for various personal reasons, cannot do it. For him, just some kind of life situation is more important. Therefore, I believe that such flash mobs do not work in full force and this is not necessary, that is, there is no need for any special actions from the population. The very fact of the crisis of legitimacy hurts the economic outlook very hard, and this is already enough.

- I followed how people in different countries commented on the Belarusian revolution when it all began last year. And very often the phrase sounded in different countries: “we did not expect this to happen.” Didn't you expect it either?

- Well... The simple answer is no. But on the other hand, by the way, we discussed this with Navalny. First, it was clear that this youtube revolution is not only in Russia, it played a serious role in Belarus as well. It was clear that the “Country for Life” and Tsikhanouski were something new. A very serious new factor has appeared that will conduct this campaign in a different way. Plus, I'll be honest with you, at the beginning of June last year, two months before the elections, I interviewed Natallia Radzina for my youtube channel...

-… the Editor-in-Chief of the Charter’97.

- Yes. And by the way, it became one of the most popular videos on my channel. And she said that we are having a velvet revolution.

After this video, a lot of all sorts of “Belarusologists” wrote to me, who said: “What is that, are you fools, what revolution? There will be nothing”. I just interviewed her and immediately said that I want to understand rather than draw any conclusions of my own. And it turned out that Natallia Radzina was right that something serious was coming. Therefore, after this conversation, I came out with the prevailing opinion that we must very carefully monitor what would happen. But that was two months before the elections.

- What an irony. This whole narrative is that “the Russian is the elder brother”. And it turned out that just those who were called “younger brothers” showed an example of such a free impulse.

- You see, this is very good. They keep asking me all the time: “And if Navalny comes to power, won't you pursue an imperial policy?” It is very important that everything depends not only on us and Navalny. It is very important when our neighbors take matters into their own hands, and show initiative in the struggle for freedom. This is how an equal relationship is obtained. When everyone is sitting and waiting and looking at Moscow, how President Navalny will behave, it turns out to be a one-way road. It's very good that it turned out in two-way.

By the way, an interesting moment, I mentioned our conversation with Natallia Radzina in early June, two months before the elections, after that I made several more broadcasts and followed this closely. I came to Lyuba Sobol and the guys at Navalny LIVE and said: “Listen, on August 9, let's stream the presidential election”. And it became megapopular with millions of views and was, in my opinion, one of the best streams held in Russia about those events. And at first it was also like: “Do you think there will be something there? Well, he will draw some fake figures, they will make a little fuss, and that's it. As it usually happens.” I said: “There will be something. Let's stream.” And in the end it worked.

- Which regime will collapse first: Putin’s or Lukashenka’s?

- Can you wrap both?

- Great idea. Synchronously.

- Actually, you know what? I have the feeling that it will be interconnected, at least. That is, it is not that both of them “lived unhappily and died on the same day” together. But I have a feeling that it will be connected. That is, everything that will happen in Belarus will have very clear consequences for Russia, because it has a very inspiring effect on us. And, on the contrary, it kind of makes Putin freak out, get nervous, and make mistakes. Very good, we need it.

Of course, I advise Belarusians to look at our movement. Despite all the current chaos, we will have some movement. We have elections in September. Both Putin and United Russia have a very bad situation there. Therefore, we will also have something going on, believe me. Therefore, when these vibrations come into resonance, both of the regimes will be greatly shaken. I would like to get rid of both, but we'll see. I am sure that these events will now be interconnected.

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