Lukashenka has become an outcast.
The goal of any war is still peace. There have not yet been endless wars. Even the current war between the regime and the people is increasingly beginning to hit the regime itself. But one should have an ability to win peace too, as was rightly noted.
It seems to me that our regime is already losing the peace. Until recently, they promoted the country as an "island of stability in a stormy world," called it a "security donor" for Europe. And, indeed, it seemed that there was no more peaceful and calm country and more tolerant and patient people on the planet.
And today the regime has become a source of threat not only for its own people but also for the Europeans. Well, the hotbed of instability too. Yes, the regime constantly agitated the country, looked for and found "enemies," then they were "lousy fleas," then "eggheads," then "parasites," then someone else. But the people kept putting up with these attempts to "rock the boat."
In the end, the regime achieved its goal, lost peace, which already seemed unshakable no matter what you do. However, it was so before. Having lost another project, once again failing in the economy or politics, the regime always started a war with some "enemies." And, to divert attention, find the "scapegoats." So now, having lost the world, they are naturally trying to unleash a war against almost everyone.
“Time has chosen us. We found ourselves at the forefront of a new, not cold, already icy war," Lukashenka said at a meeting with deputies, members of the Constitutional Commission, and other officials, Salidarnasts reported. In principle, according to Clemenceau, wars are definitely easier to win than peace.
But it is very doubtful that Lukashenka will win the war against the entire civilized world, even with the support of Putin. He also lost the peace and today revels in the Great Victory in the war, which he had nothing to do with. And there is no one else to rely on, the regime has become a world outcast. Well, how did you have to try to become an outcast for almost everyone? Except for Putin, of course.
Even North Korea recognized our regime as unsafe and did not recommend flying here. It seems like a joke, but it's indicative. The famous Belarusian rapper posted a photo from Kabul. As he writes in social networks, in Afghanistan he is going to “write music, get away from our bustle, relax before concerts,” reports media-polesye.by. And it's true. In the world security rating, the Republic of Belarus fell by a hundred positions at once and is now located just next to Afghanistan. But the Belarusians seem to be calmer there than next to the "krasautsy" ["handsome men" in Belarusian].
Naturally, the regime does not blame itself for what is happening, it finds others to blame. And the search for "culprits" is increasing. Everybody knows what is going on inside the country, there is no need to give examples. This also says that the regime has already lost the peace inside the country.
Everyone turns out to be "culprits" outside of it too. At first, they were the Russian oligarchs together with the "Wagnerites," then the "Western special services," now again the oligarchs.
Well, our regime asked for sanctions, although no one had the desire to introduce them, especially Europe. This could be seen with the naked eye, they clearly wanted to limit themselves to "serious concern." But our regime tried very hard and achieved its goal. And the sanctions will obviously be long-term or rather until the death of the inadequate regime.
As economist Igor Mironov said at Echo of Moscow: "You cannot develop normally under sanctions. You can live for a while, but you can't develop, you can't." Yes, he speaks about Russia, but it applies to us even more. We don't even have many natural resources. Except for potassium. And here, they may well impose sanctions too. However, our regime claims that China will save them with its technologies.
But did China save Venezuela? Or its neighbor North Korea? However, it even gives the latter a little help with rice and other things, but it did not make it an advanced power. China does not want to get involved with outcasts too much, let alone invest a lot of money. And we need a lot. The examples of Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela, and same Russia confirm that it is definitely impossible to develop normally under sanctions.
Although you can slowly degrade for a long time. Especially in the presence of external recharge, like our regime. But how long will this external recharge last? In general, the case is clearly moving towards defeat on this "front."
Yes, repression creates an atmosphere of universal fear and allows us not to unclench “blue fingers” yet, but this is a lost peace. And a lost peace is a collapse, it’s better to lose the war but not the peace. Better for the country. Especially if it is a war with its own people.
There are not so few cases in history when a country, having lost a war, then won the peace. And that will actually be more important than winning the war. The opposite also happens quite often, the country wins the war and then loses peace. So it is not even very important whether the regime will win or not the war it has started against progress and civilization.
Although, the chances of winning are vanishingly small. In any case, the regime has lost, and it seems to have lost completely. So it will fall, just as the USSR fell. Without a war, except one in Afghanistan, but mainly because of the lost peace, the lost peaceful competition with more progressive states. Our regime has already lost peace de facto too.
Yuri Pshennik, Our Opinion