9 December 2022, Friday, 2:58
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Roman Bezsmertnyi: Lukashenka Will 'Scatter' In The Four Winds

Roman Bezsmertnyi: Lukashenka Will 'Scatter' In The Four Winds
Roman Bezsmertnyi

The Kalinouski's Regiment should grow into a division, and maybe into an army.

Ukrainian politician and diplomat and former Ukrainian Ambassador to Belarus Roman Bezsmertnyi, in an interview with Charter97.org, spoke about the reasons for Lukashenka's recognition of participation in the war, the consequences of mobilization for his regime, as well as the danger of deploying a larger contingent of Russian troops in our country.

— For the first time since the beginning of the war against Ukraine, Lukashenka openly admitted that he was taking part in it. Is this another demonstration of loyalty for Putin, or is this statement more aimed at Belarusian society?

— We have two in one here. Firstly, this is a consequence of Lukashenka's last visit to Russia and the answer to the question why he suddenly ended up in Abkhazia. He then made several statements confirming that he had learned how to respond to Putin's demands to immediately enter the war. The first one: is a statement about the fact that he takes part in it. The second: he said that we must immediately harvest because there is someone to feed. He visited places where there is already a critical food shortage today. He presented these two positions as his economic and military-political capital in relations with Putin.

— The Belarusian dictator, by the way, recently stated that "at the end of the harvest, you need to carefully call people and clarify everything in the military commissariats". How can the announcement of mobilization in the country for his regime end?

— The first thing you need to pay attention to, is that he added: The events in Russia should be a lesson for us. He does not mean the number of mobilized people and mobilization ways. There is no order in such totalitarian leadership systems. They have no idea about the number of people registered with the military, the places of their official registration and residence, how to get to them, and so on. That's what he means. “I am well aware that you have no influence on the situation,” he told the people who sat in front of him. Lukashenka hinted that in fact, the Russians gave the answer to the question of how to avoid participation in the war.

Therefore, here he is cunning, on the one hand, as if playing along with Russia, and on the other hand, making it clear to Belarusians how to respond to the likelihood of participation in this war. Therefore, he is not simple in this respect. I watched this recording several times, and if the camera had not moved away from Lukashenka, it would be better to get what he means. He suddenly realized that Putin would press further, demand that he mobilize personnel, and deploy those conscripts who were recruited in Russia. Lukashenka understands that he will have to answer with something. In this situation, it is better to say that he is conducting internal mobilization, thereby trying to stop the deployment of Russian mobilized in Belarus.

— What could be the consequences for ordinary citizens of the presence of the Russian army on the territory of Belarus?

— This is a huge problem, because the Belarusians, no matter how someone treats them, are still Europeans by mentality. And this wildness, which the presence of the Russian contingent brings, will turn into a huge disaster for Belarus. This contingent, if it can be called human, does not distinguish whether they are guests or occupiers in this territory. This is just savage, complete savage.

The army of Belarus itself, together with the police, conscripts, and so on, is about 40,000. It is not clear how 120,000 Russian scripts can be deployed there. Of course, there will be certain manpower, it is already there, but we must understand that this is a serious threat, primarily to the Belarusian people. This savagery, which will penetrate into the Belarusian society, which is very law-abiding and very patient, even too patient, this savagery will do bad things. There were examples in February-March, when they entered the territory of Ukraine and when they left, and what happened there, in some settlements of Belarus.

On the one hand, this will be a good signal for Belarusians about what the horde is. But on the other hand, they will make a lot of trouble there. And on the third hand, I understand that the deployment of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus is almost a guarantee that Lukashenka will send his troops to Ukraine under Putin's pressure. He will try as a last resort, but the probability of Belarusian participation in this war dramatically increases with the presence of Russian troops on the territory of the country.

I have an impression that Russian private military companies have stepped up the work of recruiting people in Belarus. Because more and more Belarusians appear at the front from the side of the Russian occupiers. Also, the number of Belarusians in sabotage and reconnaissance groups that enter Ukraine and fight on the side of Russia is constantly increasing. So I don't expect anything good from it.

— Mykhailo Podolyak, the adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said that the Russians can arrange a riot and seize control over the military from Lukashenka having satiated their military units of Belarus. How do you assess the probability of any such scenarios?

— There is no need for this, the power block of Belarus is already in the hands of Russia. The signed documents confirm this, the common military doctrine. One can recall all these briefings by the Belarusian Deputy Defence Minister, who essentially confirmed that the armed forces of Belarus are under the control of the General Staff of the Russian Federation.

— Lukashenka has already turned Belarus into a military base of the Russian Federation and, following Putin, repeats the mantra about nuclear strikes. Can you indicate the conditions under which the Ukrainian army would launch an offensive against Russia and Belarus?

— In fact, there are no military, political or legal barriers for the Ukrainian army to fire on deployed military equipment, concentrations of armed forces, military infrastructure systems or military communications on the territory of Belarus. It depends only on the political decision of the Ukrainian leadership, whether to do it or not. First of all, this concerns nuclear weapons. No matter what Lukashenka says, Moscow will never let him control nuclear weapons. First, this is dangerous for Russia itself. Secondly, even if nuclear weapons are brought to Belarus, they will be controlled by authorized Russian troops.

— One of the leaders of the Belarusian opposition, Zianon Pazniak, said that “The Kalinouski Regiment should grow into a division. Then Lukashenka's regime hanging in the balance will crumble as a result of the uprising in Belarus.” Do you think it is time for Belarusian society to radicalize the protest?

— I agree that the Kalinouski Regiment should grow into a division, and maybe into an army. Another thing is that you need to recruit and train them. The Belarusian opposition needs to unite in order to act in this way. It is necessary to create appropriate state bodies, agree on the support of the new government from the European Union and other states, create its own armed forces, and free Belarus from this self-proclaimed dictator. You need to take all the necessary steps to achieve this goal. I have no doubts that this can be done in Ukraine. It can be done and it must be done.

If this is done, it will be the most peaceful way. As the classic said, Lukashenka will scatter in the four winds. If this is not done, then what peaceful way will work? No other way. Those people who talk about this should understand that goodness must be able to defend itself, it has to be with fists.