29 March 2024, Friday, 17:21
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Offensive Against Kherson: Ukrainians Smashing Russian Army Grandly

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Offensive Against Kherson: Ukrainians Smashing Russian Army Grandly

That is what is happening now in the southern direction.

Austrian military analyst Tom Cooper has collected objective information about the Ukrainian army's offensive in the Kherson direction in his blog:

- It all started with days of artillery fire at selected targets by Ukrainian artillery, particularly near Nova Kakhovka (where at least two ammunition depots were hit on August 29 alone) as well as in Kherson (in the city - it's the Wine Plant, for example). The intensity of shelling increased substantially over the last night, and artillery strikes were repeated at numerous sites deeper in the rear during the day. These were primarily ammunition depots and supply bases, as well as headquarters. However, for the first time there were reports that Ukrainian M142 HIMARS were also deployed to hit Russian positions on the front line (and not just the targets far behind the front line).

The shelling of the Nova Kakhovka area had reached such an intensity that the Russian authorities had to order the evacuation of both the local population and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation from there. Furthermore, the Russians report that all "immobile" bridges across the Dnieper are damaged and closed to traffic.

Another important target for Ukrainian artillery remained the Antonivsky automobile bridge, which was hit on August 22, 25 and 27, especially as the Russians are building their "pontoon" bridge beneath it. The latter is a massive structure, actually consisting of barges of steel and concrete, 30, 50 or more metres long, 15-20 metres wide and weighing about 1000 tons each. As of the morning of August 29, they had covered about 600 metres and were thus 300-350 metres away from completing this bridge.

This may have been one of the reasons why the Ukrainians launched their attacks on August 29.

Now regarding the Ukrainian offensive operations, from north to south. The Ukrainians were supposed to attack Novovoznesenske and Lyubimivka near Vysokopolye. The Russians claim that their airborne troops repelled both attacks, as well as attacks against Olhino and the Beryslau area, and shot down two Ukrainian MBTs.

There is some uncertainty about the situation in Zolotaya Balka, on the Dnieper (although I am not sure if the sources are referring to this place or something else): some say it was liberated; others would say that no, it was Tomina Balka, south of Kherson.

It is not particularly clear what is going on to the south, because there are plenty of claims and counter-claims. However, in fact, it appears that the Ukrainians are attacking most of the Ingulets River, from about Arkhangelske in the north, through Oleksandrivka (the one north of Davidov Brod), to Bilogorka. The Russians report that they expected an attack from the Ingulets bridgehead, but instead it came from the Andriivka sector: allegedly a Ukrainian motorized rifle battalion, reinforced by a tank company, crossed the newly built pontoon bridge there and then quickly advanced from there further.

Indeed, the first recorded Ukrainian success (and both sides agree) seems to have been the liberation of the village of Sukhoy Stavok, about 3-4 km south of Davidov Brod: there, the Ukrainian shelling terrified the Russian airborne troops, forcing them to flee and leaving behind the "volunteers" of the "DPR" 109th regiment. The latter were defeated...

Such a "forced crossing followed by an offensive" is not a bad idea: it forces the Russians to disperse artillery fire at multiple targets. The same is true for distributing their reserves: it is difficult to decide where to send or where to counterattack when "the whole front line is on fire". The decisive factor will still be Ukraine's ability, despite the superiority of Russian artillery (or having neutralized it first), to concentrate sufficient forces in selected locations. This will certainly remain decisive for the outcome of this operation: the better and faster they can contain Russian artillery, the faster and with fewer losses they will be able to advance.

Meanwhile, according to the people's intelligence, in addition to Sukhoy Stavok, Arkhangelske, Novomitriivka, Oleksandrivka were also liberated. However, none of this has been officially confirmed.

Finally, the Ukrainians attacked in the south on both sides of the M14 highway and along the coast. It is said that they have managed to surround the Russian garrison of Blagodativka, but they have not yet been able to take up ground.

The Russians report that the Ukrainians entered Pravdino and Kiselevka, but were then driven back from there. They also say they repelled a Ukrainian attack against Oleksandrivka on the coast. Meanwhile, according to CNN, the Ukrainians occupied Pravdino and Tomina Balka. The former is supposed to be the case, the latter may be an exaggeration - the place was about 10-15km from the front line on August 29. But who can say: maybe it really is true, since it is said that in some areas, the Ukrainians have meanwhile moved 10-12 km deep into the Russian lines and are smashing the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation "grandly". We will, of course, find out more later.

The Russian Air Force is on duty over Kherson. Two dozen combat sorties of Mi-28 and Ka-52 attack helicopters stationed at bases in occupied Crimea are reported. Most of their attacks were to be directed against Ukrainian forces near Andriivka and Kalynivka, and it seems the Russians are still using Kherson airport.

Keystone cops in Moscow (the author calls the Russian Ministry of Defence this way - NV) claimed to have destroyed 26 Ukrainian tanks, 23 BMPs, nine other armoured personnel carriers, two Su-25s and two helicopters. The Russian air defence system was hit by an AGM-88B HARM missile early in the morning, but was restored during the day and was operational again.

And since the evening of August 29, Russian positions near Kherson and Nova Kakhovka have been under heavy fire again.

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