Leonid Nevzlin: Belarus Missed Kalinowski’s Regiment In 2020

Trained people with guns would quickly enter Lukashenka's residence and end his dictatorship.

The Free Russia Congress was held in Vilnius on August 31-September 2. Russian opposition leaders and European politicians and experts, including Free Russia Forum co-founder Garry Kasparov, public figure and former YUKOS CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky, philanthropist and social activist Leonid Nevzlin, Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks, Lithuanian Deputy Foreign Minister Mantas Adomenas, former Estonian President Toomas Ilves, Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Paweł Jabłoński, ex-Ambassador Michael McFaul, former prime minister of Georgia Vano Merabishvili, and others participated in it.

Natallia Radzina, editor-in-chief of Charter97.org, Anatoliy Kotov, the Sports Solidarity Foundation, and Natallia Kollegova, head of Help Organization, spoke at the conference.

Philanthropist and social activist Leonid Nevzlin, who took part in the conference, spoke to the journalists of Radio Svoboda.

- You used to say that you feel more a Belarusian than a Russian. Is it true?

- That was before the war. The thing is that all my ancestors - both on my father's and mother's side - come from approximately the same places in Mahiliou and Vitsebsk regions. I researched it for a long time with the help of historians and genealogists. There are books; there is a film that I made. Mentally, emotionally, and in terms of people, I feel an attachment to Belarus. That's why I love Vilnius so much.

- Do you think you'll be able to visit your ancestral home in Belarus soon?

- I can't say for sure. The first prerequisite is the fall of the Lukashenka regime. The second one is the breaking of relations with Russia and the drawing of normal borders. Then there is the issue of lustration within the KGB, the termination of relations with the Russian FSB. Roughly speaking, if all this happens and the European direction of development wins in Belarus, I'm ready to come with guards and even help the Belarusians (smiles). Meanwhile, of course, no.

- What did the Belarusians lack in 2020 to win?

- Kalinowski's regiment. There should have been trained people with weapons, injected into masses of protesters and ready to fight back by force. If it had been done at the very beginning, people would have quickly entered the presidential palace, and that would have been the end for Lukashenka. I follow the activities of Kalinowski's regiment. It is very interesting to me.

- Do you follow the office of Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya now? They have already started considering the power scenario there as a probable one.

- I follow the news. You know, it's very funny to combine Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya's cabinet and the power scenario. I do not believe that this cabinet will initiate a coup d'etat and overthrow Lukashenka.

- Do you think Belarus still retains its independence?

- Relatively, yes. Putin needs Belarus as a springboard for war. Putin needs Lukashenka just the way he is. If Putin wants more, Lukashenka can't give it to him. Putin will take it anyway. It will be less freedom for Belarus. They have a consensus between them now, so Lukashenka rules inside Belarus for now. If Lukashenka is told to "go together from Belarus to Kyiv," independence will be lost at that point.

- Do you think Lukashenka won't be able to twist away with such a proposal?

- If Putin needs it, he won't be able to refuse. If there is a backlash, he will get out of it. He always manages to get away with it. One should keep in mind that Lukashenka is an illegitimate ruler. The level of repression in Belarus is now higher than it was during the protests. But no one wants to notice that. A Russian facial recognition system has been introduced in Belarus, which indicates full cooperation between the KGB and the FSB, as well as the unity of their interests. The number of political prisoners in Belarus is huge, we are not even able to count them because there is no public protest space.

- Will Russia's defeat in the war with Ukraine mean the end of Lukashenka's regime in Belarus?

- Yes! Lukashenka will definitely be brought down. If Russia loses, Putin loses. If Putin loses, Lukashenka loses, too.