Biggest Challenge - Belarus: Expert Explains Kremlin's Plan

Will a second front be opened?

The biggest challenge seen in connection with Russia's mobilization is the opening of a second front by Belarus. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may try again to attack Ukraine from the north, assembling, for example, a 50,000-strong contingent.

This is the subject of the RBC-Ukraine article "Annexation, Mobilization and Nuclear Blackmail. What will Change in the War between Russia and Ukraine".

According to the director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, Mykhaylo Samus, part of the military contingent will be Russia's regular units, while the rest will be mobilized and the Belarusian army.

The expert specified that this contingent would not be enough to take over any Ukrainian regions, but the Russian Federation may hatch such a plan in order to distract the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the south and east, where Ukrainian defenders will have to switch from offensive to defensive operations.

Samus added that so far it appeared that Belarusian dictator Aliaksandr Lukashenka had refused this, aware of the consequences for his regime, but Putin was likely to continue putting pressure on him.

We remind you that the Ukrainian Defence Ministry announced that a place was being prepared in Belarus to accommodate 20,000 mobilized people from Russia.

In addition, the inhabitants of Belarusian towns and cities began to receive summonses en masse.

National Security and Defence Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov promised a response that is not expected in case Belarus attacks.