ISW: Occupant Offensive Faces Challenges

The Russian army refuses PMCs.

Russia has launched the main phase of offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine. However, it lacks the available reserves to dramatically increase the scale or intensity of attacks this winter. Occupation commanders have reorganized regiments at the expense of "mobiks," using recruits as replacements for regular military personnel and instead of creating special formations.

In parallel, the Russian Armed Forces continue to face problems in re-establishing combat units, especially tank ones: their losses in equipment were so enormous that they are equivalent to about 16 tank regiments. A summary by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) describes such nuances of the enemy's probable new offensive.

Analysts note that Russian conventional ground troops are usually deployed and fight as part of conventional doctrinal formations and units, not battalion tactical groups or other special structures. The lack of several critical tank units indicates that they seek equipment replacement, especially tanks lost in previous unsuccessful offensives.

"Although Russian forces almost certainly still have several re-formed mechanized units in reserve, the deployment of these limited reserves to the front lines in Luhansk Oblast is unlikely to radically alter the course of the ongoing offensive. The Russian offensive is likely to continue for a while and may temporarily gain momentum as the last reserves - if any - are engaged. Nevertheless, it will likely reach its climax without achieving its objectives and significant operational successes," the ISW believes.

The Institute reports that the current pattern of occupant activity in Luhansk Oblast indicates that they deploy in the area as doctrinal units and formations from the military district level to, at least, the brigade/regiment level, and probably up to the battalion as well. Those invaders operating on and near the front lines in the region are almost entirely out of the Western Military District (WMD), with small reinforcements from other groups.

This disposition indicates that the Russian military command has returned to the traditional troop command structure. It means all units in a discrete geographic area belong to a single military district's area of responsibility. Each of the two full divisions (the 144th and 3rd Motorized Rifle Divisions of the Russian Armed Forces) deployed their maneuver regiments in line, allowing commanders to act as the divisions are designed to do. As ISW explaines, these regiments were re-formed with mobilized personnel, indicating that the Russian command uses mobilized soldiers as replacements in doctrinal structures instead of creating special formations.

Analysts note that while Russian troops were deployed throughout this war in various non-standard structures, starting with battalion tactical groups, including volunteer regiments, BARS units and "L/DPR" fighters, not to mention the Wagner PMC of convicts, now the occupation command is turning back to doctrinal structures. Military experts say that it is a change in the structure of the Russian forces and the plan of combat operations.

It is known that the Russian Defense Ministry is now carrying out a series of reforms aimed at formalization and professionalization of the armed forces and preparation for a protracted war against Ukraine as a conventional army. Therefore, they believe, the current arrangement of the occupation forces along the front line in Luhansk Oblast probably reflects a continued shift in Russian military procedures towards military formation specifically from the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Amid all the efforts of the aggressor country, its troops are benefiting less from this return to the standard of warfare than they might have hoped, because of the severely deteriorated state of their forces. Analysts stress that they have failed to spend time training their mobilized reservists to a standard sufficient to support a large-scale offensive mechanized maneuvering war. In addition, experts report, the invaders clearly lack the equipment needed to provide units with.

ISW reports that the Russian military today dispatched the vast majority of conventional units of the Western Military District (WMD) to its decisive offensive in Luhansk Oblast, leaving relatively few elements either in reserve or undetected. Some units of the Central Military District (CMD) and "L/DPR" fighters were additionally sent to the region as well.

However, experts stress, the absence of several elite and prominent elements of the troops on the front line in Luhansk Oblast and elsewhere on the front lines indicates that the Russian Armed Forces continue to face problems in reconstituting combat units, especially tank units. In addition, Russian tank losses in this war were enormous, equivalent to about 16 tank regiments, and likely hinder Russia's ability to quickly restore its tank units.

"The pattern of Russian troop deployments in other sections of the front strongly suggests that most of the available maneuvering elements of other military districts and airborne troops are already engaged and, thus, do not represent a large reserve that Moscow could suddenly throw into action in Luhansk or elsewhere," the ISW notes.

Although analysts do not rule out that there may well be more Russian groups in the region than has been recently observed.