ISW: Russia May Arrange Provocations in Moldova And Chernihiv Border Area

American analysts reveal the details.

Russia appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations in Chernihiv Oblast and Moldova ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to the experts at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The analysts note that Ukrainian intelligence on the eve recorded columns of Russian equipment on the border near the Chernihiv region without identification marks and with occupiers in a uniform similar to the “pixel” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The ISW explains that Russia will try to force Belarus to enter the war against Ukraine or tie down the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this sector with provocations in order to weaken the defence in the east.

In addition, the ISW does not rule out provocations in occupied Transnistria. Recently, the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation accused Ukraine of invading Moldova. The Kremlin likely sought to foster this false narrative to twist Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky‘s warning to Moldovan President Maia Sandu that the Kremlin was preparing provocations in Moldova and his offer to help Moldova if Russian forces in Transnistria threaten the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

At the same time, ISW believes that the Russian Federation will not directly attack Moldova, since Moscow does not have the military potential for this.