Fighting For Bakhmut: Russians At Risk Of Encirclement?
1- 11.05.2023, 12:08
- 15,076
Ukrainian counterattacks have become systemic.
The commander of the AFU Ground Forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, said that the Ukrainian fighters had pushed back the Russian occupants in Bakhmut by two kilometres. Is this a great success for the AFU?
Charter97.org discussed it with the well-known Ukrainian military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko.
- It is too early to talk about a major breakthrough. Current events are the result of the actions of the Ukrainian Defence Forces (UDF) in the northern and southern sectors. It is a consequence of counterattacks that have become systemic. In a certain sense, this was predictable given that the Russian occupation forces have been concentrating their forces and assets for the past month or two in urban conditions.
At the same time, there has been a weakening of the flanks and a reduced presence of Russian units in a number of positions. This has allowed the UDF to gradually increase counterattacks, which has now become a full-fledged system of action. As a result, the Ukrainians have managed to push back occupants in the northern sector and regain control of a number of positions. Southwest of Bakhmut, one could push back the Russians to the left bank of the canal behind the forest.
The occupants have been trying for months to force this canal and gain a foothold there, but now they have been pushed back and it appears that the UDF have regained control of a number of positions on the left bank.
- Will Russians continue their attacks despite the huge losses?
- They have no other choice. The only thing the occupants can do is to continue fighting in the city. If they somehow start minimizing the intensity, the systematic UDF counterattacks in the city will already force them to abandon certain positions.
They will begin to lose any initiative in the city, even though they have no initiative as such. The UDF have been forcing a defensive type of action on them all this time. The Ukrainian forces are conducting manoeuvre defence in the city and, in fact, the Russian occupation forces have to respond with this tactic. This is good for us because it allows to hold the main western sector, enabling us to use the main logistics.
- The leader of the Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin stated that the Russian troops are under threat of encirclement due to their weak flanks. Is this true?
- At the moment, such a threat does not exist. It requires more extensive and deeper action than counterattacks. It should be a full-fledged counterattack already.
A counterattack near Bakhmut is not foreseeable as such, but a systematic counterattack may gradually push the Russians further and further away from their positions.
Generally speaking, Bakhmut will be on defence in the near future.
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