AFU Colonel: Russian Fleet Has Ceased To Exist

They only had a flotilla left.

There were powerful explosions near Inkerman in temporarily occupied Sevastopol on the night of September 13. The Russian Black Sea Fleet is based there. A marine plant and at least two warships of the invaders were damaged: a major landing craft and a submarine.

What can be said about the Russian fleet after this attack? The journalists of Charter97.org addressed this question to Ukrainian military analyst, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Petro Chernik:

– There is no longer such a thing as a fleet, there is a flotilla. The value dropped greatly after we sank their flagship, the Moskva cruiser.

As for these two vessels in Sevastopol, this is a colossal step forward for the Ukrainians. We have acquired a real military subjectivity in the Black Sea. It can already be confidently stated that the Russians are not able to protect their flotilla. Moreover, I want to emphasize that the density of air defence over Crimea is greater than over Moscow, which means that their air defence systems are not capable of fighting modern cruise missiles.

– What is your assessment of the attack on Sevastopol tonight?

– Its result, firstly, was one disabled Varshavyanka-class electric submarine. This is a very serious weapon that strikes with 3M14K Caliber cruise missiles from an underwater position. It is impossible to track them at sea. It turns out that one such machine is down.

Second, the major landing craft of the Project 775, which was built back in 1983 at a shipyard in Gdansk, was also disabled. They also cannot and will not be able to replace it with anything. The Montreux Convention of 1936 is in force. The Turks don't let them. Russia's fire potential is falling.

Third, the damage to the Ordzhonikidze Marine Plant is a real success.

Let's consider the case with the submarine. It was renovated quite recently, in 2021. This means that it began to work in combat mode, its parts and mechanisms began to wear out greatly, and its reliability dropped significantly. The submarine was put back in for repairs.

From this, we conclude that submarines of this class are very worn out and require constant support. It turns out that even one disabled plant potentially reduces the quality of work of all the weapons.

They will already be thinking that they should look for repair facilities because missile launches wear out the parts and mechanisms. This is a very serious blow to their flotilla and the defence industry on the Crimean peninsula.

The next important conclusion: if this happened once, they failed to cope with most of the missiles, then this will definitely happen a second time. Sooner or later, the Russian Black Sea Flotilla will cease to exist.

– When we discussed attacks on the Crimean Bridge, you said that drones could not destroy it. Could a combined attack using aviation destroy this facility?

– My personal position is that the Crimean Bridge will be fried by cruise missiles.

– Why?

– The Russians sank a huge number of barges, set up tanks, and piled cones on them so that underwater and surface unmanned crafts could not move. It is clear that in order for the bridge to truly cease to be operational, it is necessary to destroy at least several hundred meters, and not just one sector.

This is almost impossible to do with surface weapons. Some damage may be caused, but it is the scale that matters. It is necessary that several hundred meters of the Crimean Bridge be underwater and they cannot restore it. This is possible only with missiles.

Here we have the first targeted attempt - missiles have reached Sevastopol. This means that their air defence system is not that good.

American aviation for Ukraine is on the way. The F-16 can carry the AGM-158 long-range missile, which strikes at a distance of 980 km. You can launch them from the center of Ukraine. This is actually a great step forward, but not yet a breakthrough. We shall not raise the expectations.